The Blog

The Scottish Referendum

Cameron needs the Scottish people to reject independence in order to boost his own fortunes. To this end Cameron's inner cabinet has made this month a crucial decision with respect to ship building on the river Clyde just outside Glasgow, as oppose to the fortunes of Portsmouth in the south of England which will lose its historic shipbuilding legacy. The British navy are less likely to offer a contract to what maybe effectively an overseas country to build its battleships. In this respect Cameron is offering a "financial inducement" to the Scottish people. Along the Clyde Britain has its vital nuclear submarine fleet that in a way secures Britain's permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Alex Salmond the Scottish national party leader would like Scotland to be a nuclear free country. Cameron by comparison would like to keep the union solid with our nuclear fleet being on the Clyde. There is nowhere else within the British Isles where Britain's nuclear submarine fleet can be anchored. Effectively therefore one of the first shots in the referendum election has been fired. In a way Cameron is promoting jobs in Scotland as a means of firing early shots in the build up to next years Scottish referendum. An independent Scotland would be one where the English conservative party hold little attractive prospects of success. Alex Salmond is an ingenious fighter and would like to pitch the debate as between an independent Scotland and the English. If this were to be the case the Scottish nationalists could win the vote next year. A match-up between Alex Salmond and David Cameron could potentially be critical to the Scottish nationalists cause. This would pitch the Scottish nationalists as being in direct conflict with England. A straight showdown between England and Scotland could appeal to the Scottish cause. There are few votes to be won via the conservative party along the river Clyde. By comparison there are a number of marginal seats in Portsmouth in the south of England that may be key to Cameron's success. I am only saying that the first few shots of the Scottish nationalists' referendum next year have provoked a response from the coalition government. What is unsaid but important is that it is strongly hoped that Britain will continue to exist as an entity following September 2014, but the actual outcome will be down to the Scottish people. It is just an effective financial inducement that is being provided here, Cameron is giving his support to Glasgow rather than his own backyard. Should Scotland vote for an independent country there exists an 18 month period before an independent Scotland would become a separate country. Immediately following a positive Scottish vote there would be potentially immense negotiations between the two sides. Scotland wants to keep the pound sterling as oppose to the euro, which as a currency it was flirting with before; it is now somewhat less attractive. The precise final settlement of Scottish independence will be up to negotiation following the result of the vote in September next year. It is up to the Scottish people to decide the fortunes of their province. Scotland enjoys a relatively isolated position at the top of Britain and is in many ways a separate identity at the top of Britain. It will be up to the Scottish people to determine their fortunes in 2014. There are many reasons why Britain as a member of the permanent 5 will wish to remain an important player in the international arena. If it comes to a vote for independence this will be a vital issue to be settled after the vote.