With the start of the European Championships just weeks away, i've come to wonder if Spain actually merit their status as tournament favourites. Each time i ponder this, i tell myself i'm being ridiculous, after all this is the current World and European Champions i'm talking about, but the thought won't go away. I'll try to give you some insight into the reasons why i feel like i do.
Firstly, let's start with some key personnel who are likely to miss out:
Carles Puyol, Spain and Barcelona's captain, will miss the tournament as a result of a knee injury which requires arthroscopic surgery. I can't overstate what a huge loss this is. Puyol is a born leader of men. Perhaps not the most gifted footballer, he compensates for this with his leadership and motivational skills, as well as his willingness to give everything for the cause. Puyol has also scored some vital goals in his time, most notably the winner in the World Cup semi-final in 2010 - guiding his country to their first ever World Cup final. Puyol has been a vitual ever present for Spain, over the past few years, and started both the final of Euro 2008 and the World Cup 2010.
Joan Capdevilla, another who has been a regular feature in Spain's back line in the past few seasons, has fallen out of favour and has not featured in Spain's recent matches. It appears likely that he'll be replaced by the relatively inexperienced, but undoubtedly talented, Jordi Alba. Spain will be losing a player who has played 60 times for his country, starting in both the recent Euro 2008 final and World Cup 2010 final, and replacing him with a novice at international level. Alba has just 4 caps so far in his international career.
David Villa. Little needs said about Villa's importance for his country. It's almost impossible to replace a player who has scored 51 times in 82 international appearances, and is the countries' all time leading goalscorer. Villa's form may have dipped slightly for Barcelona, before his horrific injury, however his importance to the national team cannot be overstated.
Given the absences, it appears likely that Spain will line up as follows: (4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1) Gk: Caillas, RB: Arbeloa, CB: Ramos, CB: Pique, LB: Alba; DMC: Busquets, DMC: Alonso: MC: Xavi; AMR: Silva, AML: Iniesta, ST: Llorente/Torres
Clearly, still a hugely talented line-up, however Spain's previously imperious defence has certainly lost some of its aura of invincibility. Ramos is a poor replacement for Puyol, truth be told. He's rash, as a record of 14 red cards in his career will attest to, and he's also prone to positional lapses. Pique has been both out of form and out of favour at Barcelona, being left out regularly, in favour Javier Mascherano - a midfielder being used out of postition. And Jordi Alba is very inexperienced at international level, as i mentioned previously. To me, this now looks like a defence where errors could be made, and players could be targeted by opposition coaches.
The midfield is still incredibly strong; this is undoubtedly where Spain's strength has been in recent years. This team will dominate possession against virtually any other. There is no weak link in the Spanish midfield, and indeed you'd be hard pushed to find one where they to field their second choice midfield. Such strength in depth must be the envy of every other coach in the tournament.
The front line, however, looks decidedly less threatening than they have done in previous years. David Silva has looked weary, of late, after a long, difficult season in the Premier League. After a flying start, when he was virtually unplayable, he's suffered a decidedly poorer second half of the campaign. Andres Iniesta, like many from Barcelona this season, has had a drop in form and managed only 2 goals in La Liga. Fernando Llorente, while undoubtedly an excellent player, has a completely different style to that of Villa, and Spain will have to adjust to this. Llorente also lacks Villa's pace, and this will limit Spain's ability to get in behind teams. Alternatively, Del Bosque may choose to go with Fernando Torres, however his poor form - just 7 goals in a season and a half, since his £50m move to Chelsea - and recent omissions from the Spanish squad mean that, although his form has improved of late, i still think it likely that Llorente will be the man entrusted with leading the line.
Given the issues which i have outlined, i believe Spain will struggle to retain the European Championships. No team have ever managed to do so, and with Spain's unfortunate injuries to key players, i believe that this will again be the case. Personally, i consider Germany to be the team to beat.