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Scottish Independence Vote: The UK's Breakup Is Inevitable, Warns Lord Peter Fraser

Scotland

The Huffington Post UK   First Posted: 12/03/2012 13:18 Updated: 12/03/2012 13:37

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Nothing will stop Scotland from becoming an independent nation, a Tory peer has warned, questioning whether fighting to keep the union together is worth the effort.

Lord Fraser, a former minister in John Major's government, has launched a pamphlet with the think-tank Politeia. In it he writes: “All empirical evidence points to a break-up”, and he criticises the “little fresh thinking” among unionist politicians, warning that “the status quo points only to disaster”.

The peer, previously a minister in the Scottish Office, said “there is a muddle over why the union matters”.

He dismissed the argument, put forward by politicians including David Cameron, that Scotland would lose its status in the EU, NATO and the UN if it became an independent nation. “[This argument] has more of an historical flavour than any grasp of the realities of the 21st century” he said.

Plans for a social union are "vague and imprecise", he said. "Unless clarified, they would make for loose policy", he warned.

Lord Fraser gave a gloomy outlook on the prospects of the Conservatives in Scotland. He observed that the party has “spiralled downwards” there over the last 50 years. With just one Tory MP in Scotland, Lord Fraser predicted there would be no recovery in the party’s fortunes:

“Is there a way back? That is doubtful, even with a name change… there is virtually no prospect of an overall majority.”

Scotland's independence referendum will take place by the end of 2014. Alex Salmond wants it to be held in the autumn of that year. The coalition at Westminster wants it to take place sooner, possibly as early as September 2013.

Here's a potted history of Scottish/English relations:

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Nothing will stop Scotland from becoming an independent nation, a Tory peer has warned, questioning whether fighting to keep the union together is worth the effort. Lord Fraser, a former minister...
Nothing will stop Scotland from becoming an independent nation, a Tory peer has warned, questioning whether fighting to keep the union together is worth the effort. Lord Fraser, a former minister...
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Lexxylex
5 Fans
04:32 PM on 04/19/2012
Why do some of the folk on here think Scotland owns the North Sea?
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Tamas Marcuis
0 Fans
02:29 AM on 04/21/2012
Thats because the UN Treaty on The Law of the Sea says Scotland does. Go read it there a nice explanation on wikipedia.
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Lexxylex
5 Fans
04:26 PM on 04/19/2012
You can have my husband back as soon as possible!
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Tamas Marcuis
0 Fans
02:31 AM on 04/21/2012
No! Sell him on EBAY.
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Lexxylex
5 Fans
04:23 PM on 04/19/2012
Can Scotland recall all their citizens currently in Englad back if this goes through?
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hearthammer
If left is right and right is wrong, decide!
255 Fans
09:46 AM on 04/21/2012
Can England from Scotland? Would they go back to England even if recalled? Doubt it!
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James Macpherson
0 Fans
12:37 PM on 03/16/2012
Hypothetically ,With Scotland's Embaressme­­nt Of Wealth Pouring Into an Edinburgh Treasury form her Energy Sectors be they Renewables /Gas or Oil from The North Sea Scottish Sector along with all Scotland's other Industries be they Tourism or Whisky or Electronic­­s to mention a few. How do those of a Keep London Rule persuasion Foresee The Largest Nation in These Isles Of Britain managing to look after her 55 million or So Souls. Homeless,E­­lderly, Jobless and Infirm will all have to be Looked after.
Many like to Hypothesis­­e regarding Scotland's Doom Laden Future under Edinburgh Rule but perhaps the Real Elephant in The Room is 'Will England be Bankrupt Without Scotland?.
Hard facts and Figures would be appreciate­­d here. This is not a Question to Bait Those of a London Rule persuasion but a Question that Really needs answering.
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Auld Bob
28 Fans
11:50 PM on 03/23/2012
O.K., I'll give you a few facts. The Oil & Gas Revenues, not just North Sea the latest fields are west of Shetland, and the treasury takes the revenue and credits 8.4% of the revenue as Scottish upon a per capita share. The truth is between 95% and 98%, based upon territorial Waters is Scottish. The Scottish Crown Estates rentals & Royalties go right to the Treasury as do fines from the Scottish legal system and so on. When the UK Government publishes figures they do not tell the truth. So we have Official Government, GERS, (Government Expenditure & Revenue, Scotland), figures this month. They show Scotland pays more to the Treasury than she gets back and has done so for the past six years. Thus Scotland has been in Fiscal Surplus while the UK Treasury racked up a debt of over £3 Trillion. The UK has been in Fiscal Deficit, (Fiscal Deficit means a government has not raised enough revenue to pay for her expenditure and has issued gilts, (Government Bonds), to borrow enough to make ends meet. Gilts must be bought back and interest must be paid to bond holders. So Scotland has been subsidising England as a she is in Fiscal Deficit.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wakyracir
My spaniel is watching you
94 Fans
05:20 PM on 03/15/2012
Almost every frame of the "potted history" contains glaring errors. Just one example - the first Scottish parliament was held in 1235, not 1326.
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Auld Bob
28 Fans
12:03 AM on 03/24/2012
So also is the fact Hadrian's Wall was built to keep the Scots out. Fact is the Romans were in Britain to make money. They operated as tax collectors and did so by Romanising the former rulers and taxing them. They sealed off what is now, more or less, England and everything that went in or out of the ports was taxed. Hadrian's wall was part of their tax evasion system. Remember your Bible stories with the stories of the tax collectors? Did you thnk that it did not apply throughout the Roman Empire? So the Roman guards were stopping the Southern Britons smuggling things in and out and not keeping the Northern Britons from invading the South. Go figure just what the Northern tribes would want to attack the Romans or Southern Britons for? They were either Hunter Gatherers or early Farmers and thus had all they needed in the North.
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IndependentScot
62 Fans
 
10:50 AM on 03/13/2012
There are many misguided views being thrown around on the comments section here. I am going to save some the trouble by provided indisputable figures for you. Figures determined by our very own UK government, not the SNP government in Scotland.

Scotland has less than 9% of the UK population, yet contributes to 9.6% of UK tax revenue. We received back 9.4% of that tax revenue from the UK government in 2010. Scotland is therefore a net contributor to the UK. In no way is Scotland subsidised by England, the figures speak for themselves.

Secondly, Scotland has a budget surplus in the five year leading up to 2010 which would have made Scotland around £8 billion better off had it been independent. In all of those years, the rest of the UK were running a massive deficit, even if oil revenues were attributed to the UK instead of Scotland.

Scotland's current deficit is around 4.4% of GDP compared to the rest of the UK's which is 6.6%.

Scotland's economy is not dependent on oil, the percentage of tax revenue from oil is actually lower as a percentage of GDP than it is in Norway, both countries of a similar size. Therefore Norway is arguably more dependent on oil revenues than Scotland, but actually does just fine regardless.
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Lexxylex
5 Fans
04:25 PM on 04/19/2012
Were do you get your figures? the Beano? You have virtually no GDP
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hearthammer
If left is right and right is wrong, decide!
255 Fans
09:48 AM on 04/21/2012
Where do you get yours? Conservative Central Office?

You're sounding alarmingly uninformed!
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ken607
Nothing natural about gas,nothing clean about coal
2631 Fans
10:19 AM on 03/13/2012
not true. the fact is they want to get rid of the union, for a weak society is an easily manipulated one! THAT SIMPLE. epluribus unim! isnt it like predators to pick of the weakest first.
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mokgee
Sabu.Satsang, Samsara, Solitude...
127 Fans
07:47 AM on 03/13/2012
Should that be the case, then England, will officially become the 25 th state of Europe. This has aleways been the dream of all the lying predicatble 3, looks like their dream will come true, enticed and promoted by the apathetic people of Britain, who don't like change, Well if this happens, the changes you get will not be pretty for the dumping ground of the EU. After their 5 years in office, they have amassed enough money to go where they like, the people who supported them will live in the remaining dustbin......Third world Britain, once the pride of the world in tatters....
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BlackYowe
I am a classical- liberal woman and a Jeweler.
566 Fans
06:41 AM on 03/13/2012
I have to say all the Scots I know are for Independence and what is not being said is the policy of open immigration has been a huge determining factor. Scotland has watched while London and the house have been sinking under the weight of the EU and the flood of foreign nationals into the economy producing crime, job and housing shortages and a destruction of UK culture. I have allot of friends in Scotland some conservative some very liberal and they all want to leave England behind. Scotland prefers to look at the model of Norway to that of Ireland. Norway has oil and is doing very well. Scotland wants to see their oil stay in Scotland not sent to England.
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MsBubblyBlonde
Sassy,brassy,kiss my assy.
176 Fans
11:27 PM on 03/13/2012
I am Scottish and don't know anyone that agrees with you.I live in England, married an Englishman and have a very happy life with my Scottish and English friends. My family fear the thought of independence as we have no idea why you say "our" oil.The oil is in the North sea is doesn't make it purely for the Scots.
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BlackYowe
I am a classical- liberal woman and a Jeweler.
566 Fans
08:07 AM on 03/14/2012
There you have it, living in England married to and Englishman. Do you think you are hearing the whole story? I have so many Scottish friends from so many walks lo life who live in Scotland and they all vote with the SNP and want independence. It's not my opinion. I don't have the right to make an opinion I don't live in Scotland and I don't have all the facts. The way allot of Scots see the oil situation is it comes from Scottish seas but all ends up fueling the South. I am not saying these things I am repeating them.
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Alexicon
59 Fans
11:02 PM on 03/12/2012
Looks like some comments have been mysteriously removed by the moderators.
Comments I should add that were not insulting or offensive.
The only reason I can give is that they were truthful and honest.
Shame!
Molli think subliminal and heavy censorship!
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daveyb0927
11 Fans
10:32 PM on 03/12/2012
I fear that independent Scotland would suffer the same fate as independent Eire did; an economic backwater only kept afloat by emigration to the rest of the British Isles. What worries me is the prospect of an English nationalist backlash, and that post-independence Scotland would not be treated as generously as Southern Ireland was.
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Alexicon
59 Fans
10:42 PM on 03/12/2012
Or Scotland could suffer the same as Norway!!!!!!!
An English nationalist backlash?
Scotland wouldn't be treated as fairly as southern Ireland was?

Care to elaborate on those 2 points.

I think your fear is for your own country rather than for Scotland.
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daveyb0927
11 Fans
09:51 PM on 03/13/2012
Why use Norway as an analogy, why not use Iceland?

As to the English natioanlist backlash, please read some the disgusting spleen being vented on the subject from south of the border.

Following the establishment of an independent state in the south of Irelend, the UK government continued to allow citizens of what became the Republic free movement into the UK, including the right to vote in UK elections.. This provided an valuable economic safety valve for what would have been an even more impoverised nation.

Britain IS my country, to chop it in half would be a misfortune for England - and a tragedy for Scotland.
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Auld Bob
28 Fans
12:16 AM on 03/24/2012
Ah! daveyb0927, you are very, very wrong. Last years, (Government Expenditure & Revenue, Scotland), Figures came out this month. They show, (as they have for at least six years), Scotland in Fiscal Surplus and The UK in massive Fiscal Deficit. Fiscal Deficit = A country that cannot raise enough revenue to meet her expenditure. She then issues gilts, (Government Bonds), in order to borrow enough to make ends meet. These bonds must eventually be bought back and interest must be paid for them. The present debt is over £3 Trillion.
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seyrobin
0 Fans
08:08 PM on 03/12/2012
Very interesting that the timeline makes no mention of the Independent Scottish attempt of a Scottish trading company in 1694, to rival the East India Company.

Sadly it failed due to poor management and the fact that England declined to defend the Scots against the Spanish, (having just signed a peace treaty with Spain after decades of war).

The effect of this was that Scotland was bankrupt and needed a hand out from the English which was available to them on joining the union.
Many Scots were against this union and the Ox Cart Convoy taking the gold to Scotland was under constant attack once it crossed the border.

Can we have our gold back now please?

See Company of Scotland on Wikipedia
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Alexicon
59 Fans
08:21 PM on 03/12/2012
Oops! Scotland was not bankrupt. A few landed gentry were though, those of the parcel of rogues fame.
You are right many Scots were against the union. In fact I would suggest everyone apart from those taking English gold!
You can have your gold back when you repay all you have taken from Scotland for the last 300 years, deal?
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Auld Bob
28 Fans
12:42 AM on 03/24/2012
If you happen to be refering to the Darian Expedition it was just another example of Pefidious Albion. First of all the English Navigational Acts were used to bankrupt Scotland and, by the way they caused England to fight wars all over Europe and rack up a massive national debt. These laws forced the Scots to export and import goods, (even to and from England), in only English ships. Thus the English merchants could demand any price they liked for the imports and cut the prices of all exports. Then they promised the Scots that between the English & Dutch they would finance 50% of the Darian Expedition but they waited until the ships were bought and crews engaged then pulled out of the deal. This left the whole enterprise underfunded. After the expedition set off the monarch, (who was both the English & Scots monarch), issued orders the navy was not to aid the Scots expedition and after they arrived the king's soldiers were not to aid his Scottish subjects. The expedition thus failed and Scotland went bust. However, The Scots had NO National debt and England had massive national debt as she had been fighting wars all over Europe. So can we have our share of the English national debt that we paid for back? If you are going to quote history then get it right first.
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seyrobin
0 Fans
11:06 AM on 03/24/2012
My question was, why no mention about the Scottish Company? If it was as you say, then why keep quiet about it? My comment “can we have our gold back please”? Was a joke, please accept my apologies for my english sense of humour.
All the replies I have had appear to attack my defence of what happened.
I was not justifying what led up to the union, just the fact that the Scottish Company was an issue that is never mentioned by those that attack the english for forcing the Scots into a union that apparently was only of benefit to the english.
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MolliBlum
2330 Fans
07:40 PM on 03/12/2012
What's with the headline? Why "warns"? Why not just "says"?
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emillio11
90 Fans
07:55 PM on 03/12/2012
depends on how the editor looks at it...from his point of view it's warns..possibly because that is how it was intended to be read/said.
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MolliBlum
2330 Fans
07:59 PM on 03/12/2012
Are you sure that is how it was intended to be read/said?
After all, the article quotes him as saying that “the status quo points only to disaster”.
So, surely, the "warning" is about the status quo.
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Alexicon
59 Fans
08:33 PM on 03/12/2012
Think subliminally molli.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
180 Fans
07:17 PM on 03/12/2012
There's unlikely to be any comeback for the tories in Scotland if they support gay marriage.
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west lothian questioner
285 Fans
07:28 PM on 03/12/2012
Which mainstream party in Scotland is against gay marriage?
I think you'll find there are none.
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Mickey Mouse 1
There are no lies or deceit on a chess board.
180 Fans
07:59 PM on 03/12/2012
SNP plans to allow gay marriage would make Scots voters less likely to back independence, according to a new poll by the Opinion Research Business..

Gordon Wilson, former SNP leader, said that the issue of gay marriage could prove a disaster for the party at a time when they should be building a consensus among voters.
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