On Wednesday morning David Cameron promised an in/out referendum on the EU and set the date for 2017.

Only thing is, there is a rather large obstacle in the way and we're not talking about Nigel Farage's unusually wide grin.

An election.

A very important election which the Conservatives must win otherwise all of this referendum talk is as relevant as Donald Trump.

Currently, online bookmakers, Paddy Power, are offering odds of 11/4 for a Conservative majority in 2015 and 5/2 on an EU referendum taking place in 2017.

Lets put these into context with a look at the odds offered on some other things on the political (and not so political) horizon...


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  • Ed Miliband becoming next PM

    Odds: 10/11 Ooh, some pretty serious odds here. And if they're right then they blow any plans for a referendum clear out the political waters

  • Hilary Clinton becoming America's first female president

    Odds: 7/2 Seems there's a good chance of the continuation of the Clinton dynasty, but a referendum is ever so slightly more certain.

  • Finding horse meat in your burger

    Odds: Nearly one in three if it's a Tesco value jobby bought before last week. We have more chance of being European through our accidental dietary habits than through political union.

  • England winning the World Cup in Rio 2014

    Odds: 20/1 48 years of hurt etc, etc.

  • Donald Trump to buy the New York Times outright by the end of 2015

    Odds: 33/1 God. Forbid. Please.

  • Team GB beating their 2012 medal haul in Rio in 2016

    Odds: 5/1 This is more like it. We can take our isolationist EU stance and then rub it in the face of all those pesky continentals as we trounce them at a host of sporting events. Superb.

  • Lance Armstrong winning another yellow jersey

    66/1 These are quite generous odds with everything that has happened.

  • Nigel Farage becoming PM

    Odds: 100/1 Lance Armstrong has more chance of wining the Tour de France than this man has of becoming PM. If anyone sees Armstrong breaking a sweat on a bike, knock him off.