POLITICS

Nate Silver Reckons Scotland Will Lose Independence Vote (POLL)

13/08/2013 12:06 BST | Updated 13/08/2013 12:07 BST
AP
Nate Silver sits on the stairs at Allegro hotel in downtown Chicago, Friday, Nov. 9, 2012. The 34-year-old statistician, unabashed numbers geek, author and creator of the much-read FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times, correctly predicted the presidential winner in all 50 states, and almost all the Senate races. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Nate Silver, the American statistician who shot to fame after predicting the results of the most recent US Presidential election, has struck again.

Only this time his number crunching polling predictions are not good news for Scottish independence.

In an interview with The Scotsman he said: “There’s virtually no chance that the Yes side will win. If you look at the polls, it’s pretty definitive really where the No side is at 60-55 per cent and Yes side is about 40 or so.

“Historically, in any Yes or No vote in a referendum, it’s actually the No side that tends to grow over time, people tend not to default to changing the status quo.

“The No side is even more dominant with the younger voters, so there’s not going to be any generational thing going on.”

His analysis has sparked huge debate with The New Statesman saying that while Silver may have a good reputation in the US, he's yet to prove he knows what is happening in the UK.

Meanwhile John Curtice told The Telegraph: “I think it’s going to be very difficult for both sides to secure large shifts in the vote.”

A spokesman for Yes Scotland also told the newspaper: “Our research tells us that the more people learn about the benefits of independence, the more likely they are to see a Yes vote as the best path to a fairer and more prosperous country. That is why we’re confident of a majority voting Yes in 2014.”