NEWS

Jeremy Corbyn Has 0% Chance Of Leading Labour To Outright Majority, Electoral Calculus Says

'Time for Labour to sit up and take note.'

09/08/2016 10:45
Matthew Horwood via Getty Images
Jeremy Corbyn's promise to deliver a Labour victory undermined by latest study

Labour has a 0% chance of winning a snap general election, leaving Theresa May to storm home with a majority of 90 seats, fresh research has suggested. 

Analysis from the Electoral Calculus, which predicted the vote result based on upcoming boundary changes and opinion poll data, appears to scupper claims by Jeremy Corbyn he can deliver his party to power.

The shock report prompted Labour MP Graham Jones to encourage party members to “sit up and take note” in a post on Twitter.

The study found that Labour would lose 50 MPs as a result of both new constituency boundaries and current voting intention if a snap poll was called. 

While the new boundaries have not been confirmed or voted on, the Electoral Calculus projected its own based on previous proposals and updated voter geography.

Their findings would leave Her Majesty’s Opposition with a 0% statistical chance of forming the next majority government and only a 2% possibility of governing in coalition with the SNP and Plaid Cymru. 

Leadership contender Owen Smith revealed recently that if he won the Labour contest there would be “no backroom deal” with Nicola Sturgeon’s party to keep May out of office.

There is only a 1% chance of Labour returning to power bolstered by the two nationalist parties and the Liberal Democrats.

Electoral Calculus
The chances of six predicted outcomes following the next general election. A Labour majority does not feature in the chart as it has a 0% likelihood 

The prediction is based on opinion polls that quizzed 7,952 people on their voting intention.

Corbyn’s biggest criticism from those trying to unseat him is that he will not lead Labour to victory at the next General Election. 

Two of the Islington MP’s former economic advisors recently slammed his command of the electorate. while dozens of MPs launched a mass resignation spree in protest at his competency as leader.

But Corbyn has maintained that in the event of a snap election: “We are going to go for it and win it.”

A close ally of his, Richard Burgon, has also claimed “his ideas are part of the solution to enable the Labour Party to win the next General Election, whenever that may be”.

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