21/04/2017 09:44 BST | Updated 21/04/2017 11:00 BST

ANC Could Lose Power In 2019 If Zuma Stays Or Dlamini-Zuma Takes Over -- Report

An RMB report says Zuma or his ex-wife will be a liability to the party in 2019.

James Oatway / Reuters
President Jacob Zuma addresses crowds gathered to celebrate his 75th birthday.

A report by Rand Merchant Bank has warned that the ANC will lose the elections in 2019 if Zuma stays in power, or if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma succeeds him at the ANC's elective conference in December.

According to Business Day, the bank's political report -- called "Political views in a post downgrade, post Gordhan SA" -- was put together by seven analysts.

The report said that political uncertainty is likely to continue until 2019 when government could change.

"The market may be underpricing the probability that Zuma gets forced from office in the next few months... Risks of a shift to the left, including potentially interference in the South African Reserve Bank are seen as having increased," said the report.

The report also predicted that Dlamini-Zuma was the frontrunner to succeed Zuma, ahead of Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and ANC treasurer general Zweli Mkhize.

The Star reported that the document was for the bank's internal political risk assessment.

"The report reflects responses to questions put to the analysts, whose answers were expressed as probabilities. The questions asked covered key issues that have been dominating media coverage over the past two weeks," RMB said in a statement.

When contacted by The Star for comment one of the anaysts, Ralph Mathekga, stood by his assessments in the survey:

"The ANC is at a knife-edge and it is at risk of losing in 2019 if it doesn't do anything drastic."

But the ANC Women's League rubbished the report, according to Business Day.

"It is only the ANC government through established institutions like Competition Commission that can deal with banks which are involved in the corruption of the manipulation of the SA currency," league spokesperson Meokgo Matuba told the paper.

It concluded that there was a "meaningful probability" that the ANC would lose power in 2019. The survey says the ANC's loss of power would be caused by a victory for Dlamini Zuma during the party's elective conference in December, which would ensure that President Jacob Zuma stays at the Union Buildings until 2019.