Allies of Boris Johnson are increasingly confident that Boris Johnson will survive the partygate scandal.
Senior Conservative figures have told HuffPost UK that MPs are unlikely to ditch the prime minister even if he is fined by the Metropolitan Police.
In particular, they think Tory backbenchers will be unwilling to change PMs against the potential backdrop of war in Ukraine.
Johnson became the first prime minister ever to be interviewed under caution by detectives investigating alleged lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street and Whitehall.
A dozen Conservative MPs have publicly submitted letters of no confidence in the PM, but the true figure is thought to be much higher.
Many others are waiting for the outcome of the police investigation before deciding whether to follow suit. Under Tory rules, 54 would be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence.
The PM has repeatedly refused to rule out staying in post even if he receives a fixed penalty notice for his part in the scandal.
It is understood his defence is that while he did attend some gatherings, it was in a work capacity and that any rule-breaking only took place after he had left.
It has now emerged that those in the PM’s inner circle believe he will be able to ride out the controversy and remain in post.
One senior MP told HuffPost UK: “If I was to lay odds on him going, I’d put it at 5/1 against.
“Even if he is fined, I don’t think you’ll see a lot of MPs submitting no confidence letters. Indeed, I understand some have actually withdrawn their letters in recent days.
“And even if enough letters go in to trigger a vote, there’s every chance that the PM would win it.
“I honestly don’t think Conservative MPs would want to bring down a prime minister against the backdrop of an international crisis.”
However, one former minister pointed out that Margaret Thatcher was replaced as prime minister by John Major during the first Gulf War.
They said: “If Boris’s friends think Ukraine will save him, they obviously don’t know their history.”
Asked on the BBC’s Sunday Morning show whether he would quit if fined by the police, Johnson repeatedly dodged the question.
He said: “I understand your curiosity, I totally accept it, but you’re just going to have to accept for the time being — and you won’t have long, I hope — but for the time being you’re going to have to contain your interest.
“I will be saying a lot more about it in due course.”
But Europe minister James Cleverly insisted Johnson should remain in his job regardless of the outcome of the police probe.
He told Sky News: “I don’t think what the country needs at the moment is a vacuum at the centre of government when we are dealing with our recovery from Covid, the accumulation of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, making sure that the the health service is able to deal with the sad, the unfortunate but nevertheless obvious, backlog that’s been created by Covid.
“That’s what the country needs. That’s what I believe the prime minister should be doing.”