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Tracing Rainbows
There was worrying news in the fight against coronavirus as the government revealed tonight that the infection rate (R) had crept up to between 0.7 and 1, a rise from the previous estimate of 0.5 and 0.9.
Health secretary Matt Hancock, mindful of the fact that the epidemic in care homes is thought to be driving the rising R rate, spent his opening remarks at the Downing Street briefing highlighting the “intense” support the government is giving to the sector.
Attempting to empathise with an anxious public, he revealed one of his own loved ones is currently in a care home as he promised to test every care home resident and member of staff for Covid-19 by early June.
But just this morning it emerged that the government was failing to get anywhere near its target to recruit 18,000 contact tracers who will help combat the spread of the virus, hiring just 1,500 to date and missing Hancock’s own ambition to have them in place by mid-May.
The health secretary has of course already been criticised for promising 100,000 tests a day by the end of April, a target that was dubiously met on the day and then missed on most days since.
But he would say that it at least drove forward an extremely rapid expansion of testing that the UK needed, and will be hoping for a similarly speedy acceleration of his test and trace programme.
Meanwhile, another week of Brexit talks has come to an end with little progress and fears of the UK leaving the transition period on December 31 without a trade deal are growing.
British chief negotiator David Frost is said to be optimistic about the prospect of a deal but conceded “very little” progress has been made.
His EU counterpart Michel Barnier by contrast is “determined” but “not optimistic”, suggesting the UK still simply does not understand the consequences of Brexit for trade.
So is it time to panic about a no-trade deal Brexit mid-pandemic? Probably not... yet.
At the heart of the impasse is a fundamental difference in the way each side is approaching the talks.
The UK wants to be treated like other, more far-flung countries such as Canada and thinks Brussels’ demands for a so-called “level playing field” which would see Britain aligning standards with the EU to a high level are unprecedented and unjustified.
But the EU insists the UK is a special case, being geographically in Europe and one of its biggest trading partners, and therefore must be held closer (and therefore tied closer) than the likes of Canada.
One pessimistic senior Tory told me both sides are acting fairly and rationally, and so sees little room for compromise and thinks no deal is now likely.
But with another round of negotiations before a planned high-level meeting next month, Georgina Wright of the Institute for Government (IfG) believes it is too early for compromise.
“We are exactly where you’d expect both sides to be, it’s too early for either side to move, they are sticking firmly to their lines,” she told me.
Also importantly, the UK plans to publish a draft legal text next week at which point EU member states will all be able to see just how unrealistic its demands are - or not.
If the UK can back up its claims it could persuade individual member states to begin easing up on their own positions, Wright said.
Boris Johnson has also shown he is willing to make concessions if he really wants a deal. But perhaps that is the real question.
There are plenty who feel the government is relaxed about no deal as its economic impacts will be masked by coronavirus.
Quote Of The Day
“As with protective equipment and testing, the government has been too slow and the process is rapidly descending into a shambles.”
- Shadow Cabinet Office minister Rachel Reeves on the government only recruiting 1,500 contact tracers out of a promised 18,000 by mid-May.
Cheat Sheet
The coronavirus infection rate – the so-called “R number” – could be as high as one, raising the spectre of a second peak of the disease in the UK.
Ministers look set to miss another Covid-19 target as just 1,500 contact tracers have been hired out of a pledged 18,000. Health secretary Matt Hancock had said he would recruit an “army” of 18,000 tracers, to track the people coronavirus sufferers have had contact with, by “mid-May”.
The number of people who have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus has risen to 33,998 – an increase of 384 over 24 hours.
More than 12,500 care home residents have died of coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
All 44 charges brought under the Coronavirus Act since it was introduced on March 27 were incorrect, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has confirmed.
Boris Johnson should review the pay of “tireless” NHS and care staff before awarding them honours after the coronavirus crisis, the Liberal Democrats have said.
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