According to the bookies, today’s Rochdale by-election is already a done deal.
George Galloway, the former Labour MP who now represents the Workers Party of Britain, is the odds-on favourite to win.
If he does, it will represent another remarkable comeback for one of British politics’s most controversial figures.
Voters in the Greater Manchester seat began going to the polls from 7am this morning to elect a successor to Tony Lloyd, the veteran Labour MP who died of leukaemia in January.
Lloyd, who had been the constituency’s MP since 2017, was re-elected in 2019 with a majority of 9,668.
All things being equal, the by-election would have been a safe Labour hold. But, in an unprecedented move, the party withdrew support for its own candidate, Azhar Ali, after recordings emerged of him making anti-Israel comments at a community meeting.
Because it was too late to replace him on the ballot paper, Ali is still officially Labour’s candidate even though, if he wins, he will sit as an independent MP and will not stand for the party at the general election.
Labour’s difficulty has become Galloway’s opportunity. The Dundee-born left-winger aims to capitalise on his former party’s turmoil over the war in Gaza to become Rochdale’s new MP.
Galloway was first elected to parliament as the Labour MP for Glasgow Hillhead in 1987, a seat he held until 2005.
By that time, however, he was no longer a Labour member, having been expelled from the party two years previously over his outspoken opposition to the Iraq war.
At the 2005 general election, he was elected the Respect MP for Bethnal Green and Bow, defeating Labour’s Oona King in the process.
After losing his seat in 2010, Galloway returned to parliament again in 2012 when he won the Bradford West by-election.
Once again, he was defeated at the subsequent general election in 2015 and, after unsuccessful attempts to become London mayor and a member of the Scottish Parliament, he is once again on the verge of becoming an MP.
Another curiosity of the Rochdale by-election is that is is being contested by no fewer than three former Labour politicians - Azhar Ali (who is a councillor in Wigan), Galloway and Simon Danczuk, who represented the seat for Labour between 2010 and 2017 and is standing for Reform UK.
The unique circumstances of the contest also make it hard to predict, although there is little doubt that Galloway is now the man to beat.
One local voter told HuffPost UK: “The Labour vote isn’t just going to go to Galloway.
“The idea that George will also get all of the Muslim vote is just not true. And Muslim voters only make up around 20% of the electorate, so it’s hard to call. It will all depend on turnout.”
Galloway has been clear about what his priorities will be should be sent back to the Commons, telling the Manchester Evening News: “On my return - if I’m elected - I’ll begin with, ‘as I was saying, Mr Speaker’, and I’ll ask the prime minister to meet me urgently to hear from the frontline, what millions of British people think about what’s happening in Gaza.
“But my second question will be on the A&E and the maternity services which are now non-existent in Rochdale.”