Labour Has A 95% Chance Of Winning The Election, According To A Polling Expert

Former Tory adviser Luke Tryl said it would be "historically unusual" if Keir Starmer does not end up in No.10.
Keir Starmer is on course to become the next prime minister.
Keir Starmer is on course to become the next prime minister.
Leon Neal via Getty Images

Labour has a 95% chance of winning the next election, according to a polling expert.

Luke Tryl, who is a former Tory adviser, said it would be “historically unusual” for the party to lose, given the size of its opinion poll lead.

His comments follow those of election guru Professor Sir John Curtice, who put the chances of a Labour victory at 99%.

Asked today whether he agreed, Tryl, UK director of the More in Common think-tank, said: “Who am I to disagree with the great John Curtice?

“I would maybe put it at 95% rather than 99% personally, but I still think it is very, very likely, simply because I don’t think we know.

“Something could emerge [but] all the structural factors point to a Labour victory. But we have very high electoral volatility. The Conservatives have been as low as 14% in the polls this parliament and as high as 54%.

“That is extraordinary levels of volatility, which means I don’t think we can take everything totally for granted, even if you can have a fairly good guess at the result.”

Tryl said a new More in Common poll released this morning put Labour’s lead over the Tories at 17 points.

That echoed two other polls earlier this month which showed Labour extending its advantage over the Conservatives as the election approached.

Polling experts have also predicted that the Conservatives are on course to lose up to 500 seats at next month’s local elections, a result which would pile further pressure on Rishi Sunak.


What's Hot