A fortnight of acrimonious unrest has forced President Mohamed Morsi to annul a controversial decree securing temporary but far-reaching powers. But this U-turn will come as little comfort to those who fear an increased role for a military that has only just retired to the political sidelines. Morsi used his new political freedoms to reassure the army that its most precious demands for the future will be met, immunizing his presidency against the threat of a coup.
A constitutional declaration issued on November 22 granted Morsi the power to rule by decree and denied Egypt's judiciary the right to challenge presidential decisions taken in the absence of a ratified constitution. The announcement was carefully timed. Coming days before Egypt's highest court was expected to rule on the constitutionality of parliament's Islamist-dominated upper chamber, the declaration was widely interpreted as a rebuke to a judiciary that had too often moved to thwart Morsi's decisions.
The annulment of the November declaration has only partially restored the power of Egypt's judges to scrutinise executive decisions. Although decrees may once again face the possibility of judicial review, Morsi's constitutional declarations are still beyond the reach of the courts. But as was so often the case during the rule of Hosni Mubarak, there remains a big difference between an institution's theoretical ability to act, and its desire to do so when faced with a stubborn executive. For now, at least, the judiciary's wings have been clipped, and it is unlikely to move against any presidential decisions in the near future.
Much was achieved during the constitutional declaration's short life-span. Not only was Morsi able to compel the hasty drafting of a constitution, but he also used his temporary room for manoeuvre to reassure the military of their privileged role in society.
The constitution offers the military exactly what it desires: a budget free from scrutiny and the right to maintain a parallel judicial system for use in ambiguously-defined times of crisis. And the military's position will now be strengthened even further. On Sunday, Morsi issued a new decree charging the army with keeping the peace until a new parliament is chosen. This is a particularly clever sleight of hand from a president who is often depicted as an amateur. On June 26, a similar attempt to empower the military was deemed unlawful by an Egyptian administrative court. The new decree explicitly flouts this decision, but is unlikely to be challenged in the near future by a chastised judiciary. This leaves the military primed for a role in quelling unrest, should its leadership deem the situation sufficiently destabilising.
The president's Muslim Brotherhood has long been accused of cutting backroom deals with Egypt's powerful military leaders, but there has been little to suggest that the tacit alliance went beyond an informal acknowledgement of a mutual desire to preserve specific political and financial interests. But as Egypt's constitutional crisis continues, the contours of a more formal relationship appear to be crystallizing.
The two most significant developments for the army, the writing of a draft constitution and the announcement of the new decree, have both resulted from the explicit intervention of military officials. In the case of the constitution, this pressure successfully influenced the constituent assembly to support the existence of military trials for civilians. In formalizing the existence of this much-criticised practice, the new constitution will ensure that protesters continue to be tried behind closed doors, formalizing the possibility that protesters will continue to face the threat of trial behind closed doors. Similarly, Morsi's decree empowering the military to use any force necessary to maintain security was drafted with the cooperation of army leaders.
The road that Egypt's political actors have travelled since the January revolution appears to be curving backwards. Morsi may not be the Mubarak-esque dictator that some of his detractors depict, but in strengthening political ties with the army he is treading a dangerous path. This could yet lead to a military-backed crackdown reminiscent of the bloody junta-rule that his presidency was supposed to consign to history.