Russia's Invasion: Could Ukraine's Counterattack Be A Turning Point In The War?

"If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee," Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
DIMITAR DILKOFF via Getty Images

Ukraine has just launched a long-awaited counterattack against Russia, in a move which could prove pivotal to the war.

Six months after Russian president Vladimir Putin first invaded Ukraine – in what he expected to be a very straightforward and short-lived offensive – Ukrainian forces have started uprooting Moscow’s forces in the city of Kherson.

As the BBC’s Hugo Bachega explained: “The conflict seems to be at a deadlock with neither side making significant gains. This could be about to change.”

Here’s what you need to know.

Why Kherson?

Kherson is the only regional capital Russian forces have been able to hold onto since the war began. It is currently administered by Moscow-backed officials.

Russian troops advanced into the southern area from the Crimean Peninsula (the Ukrainian land annexed by Russia in 2014) and quickly seized it shortly after the invasion began in February.

Ukrainian forces have been looking to damage Russian positions hidden deep within Kherson for weeks, and have been using weapons provided by the West to hit its opponents far beyond the frontline.

There’s also another element which may have spurred Ukraine to act right now.

According to Russia’s Tass news agency, officials have been planning to hold a referendum on Kherson formally joining Russia too – meaning there’s greater pressure for Ukraine to regain the land.

What’s Ukraine doing?

Nataliya Humenyuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern command, confirmed on Monday that an offensive against the Russian forces had begun.

But, this admission only came after a video circulated online which supposedly showed a soldier from the Russian-run self-proclaimed republic of Donetsk claiming Ukrainians had broken through.

Explosions and shots have been heard coming from the region for two days now, but Zelenskyy did not even refer directly to the attack in his nightly address on Monday night.

However, he did say: “The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed.”

Then, on Tuesday, the presidency said intense fighting was taking place across “almost the entire territory of Kherson”, according to AFP news agency.

One of the president’s senior advisers, Oleksiy Arestovych, also claimed that Ukrainian forces had broken through Russia’s front line in several different places, and the ferries on the west bank of the Dnipro River were being shelled, impacting Russian forces’ supplies.

Ukraine has been trying to cut off Russian forces from their main supply routes in Kherson for weeks.

And, according to the Ukrainian forces, their attacks have forced one regiment of Russian-backed forced to leave its position in the Kherson region.

Allegedly, Russian paratroopers providing backup have also fled.

Russian invasion of Ukraine
Russian invasion of Ukraine
PA Graphics via PA Graphics/Press Association Images

By Tuesday, a spokesman for Ukraine’s operational command claimed 13 Russian command posts had been destroyed, along with three ammunition depots and a crossing over the Dnipro river.

However, the UK’s ministry of defence explained: “It is not yet possible to confirm the extent of Ukrainian advances.”

It also comes after a series of alleged attacks in Crimea, which Ukraine has not publicly taken responsibility for.

What’s the state of Russian military in the area?

According to the Ministry of Defence, Russia has been trying to reinforce its military along the Dnipro River around Kherson since the start of August.

“Most of the units around Kherson are likely under-manned and are reliant upon fragile supply lines by ferry and pontoon bridges across the Dnipro.”

“There is a realistic possibility that Russia has moved to rationalise the several, semi-independent, operational commands which contributed to its poor performance early in the invasion.

“If Ukraine succeeds in undertaking sustained offensive operations, the cohesion of this untested structure will likely be a key factor in the sustainability of Russian defences in the south.”

Why has Russia dismissed it?

Russia’s defence ministry admitted that Ukraine had attempted an offensive in the Kherson and neighbouring Mykolaiv regions.

But, it claimed the operation failed and that Ukrainian troops have suffered “heavy losses” during an unsuccessful attack.

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