After a difficult start to Phase 2 of the leadership contest, Boris Johnson looks like heâs now enjoying himself on the campaign trail. Heâs more confident, more relaxed and certainly looks like he wants it. The gags are starting to creep in (he joked to Conservative Home this morning that Harold Macmillan âtook a Trollope to bedâ) and heâs breezily charging on, even as he leaves more policy contradictions in his wake.
Last night he told the digital hustings that the chances of a no-deal Brexit were âa million-to-one againstâ. Given that heâs also said that he will get the UK out of the on October 31 âdo or dieâ, that suggests that he is totally convinced he can negotiate, legislate and implement a new withdrawal agreement with the EU27 by Halloween.
Some Brexiteer MPs admire his ambition, but even they think no-deal is more likely than not, given the short timeframe. Perhaps the most important statement yesterday in the Tory race came from someone who is not even a Tory. DUP leader Arlene Foster said: âIt is very important that we leave on the 31 October, of course we should have left by now.â The new Tory leader should âproactivelyâ deal with concerns about the Irish backstop, she added. Yet with the EU signalling it wonât unpick Mayâs withdrawal agreement, thatâs exactly why no-deal looms so large.
Despite all those rumours of a snap election, Johnson said last night that it would be âabsolutely crazy for any of us to think of going to the country and calling a general election before we get Brexit doneâ. Earlier, in the House of Lords hustings, he had a variant of this, saying it would be âabsolutely insaneâ to go to the country without having left the EU. Still, the threat of a no-confidence vote forcing an election is clearly not far from his mind. Thatâs why he reminds Tory members heâs a vote-winner, adding the party âneed to be ready to wallop Corbyn for sixâ. Or, as he told peers, âCorbynâs like a crocodile, heâs lurking under the water.â
If anyone was in any doubt that Johnson wants to keep no-deal firmly on the table, his ConHome interview suggests he would not include in his cabinet anyone who was not âreconciledâ to quitting without an agreement. That probably rules out Amber Rudd, David Gauke, Greg Clark and others. The activistsâ website also puts Johnson on 66% to Huntâs 30%. Thatâs a huge mountain to climb. And unlike David Cameronâs long summer overhaul of David Davis in 2005, Hunt has just two weeks to turn it around before ballot papers are sent out.
Fears of a no-deal Brexit have forced MPs across different parties to find cunning new ways to stop it from happening. The scramble for novel parliamentary procedure has prompted Dominic Grieve and Margaret Beckett to target the annual finance âestimatesâ, when the Commons signs off public spending, with amendments designed to force the hand of the new PM.
Itâs not quite the âshutdownâ tactics seen in the US, but the threat to stop all public spending on key areas (the first estimates up for a vote next week are on education, work and pensions, housing and overseas aid) would be a radical move for the British parliament. So radical that several MPs may well baulk at it. The Business Statement today should tell us on which days the estimates votes will occur.
Meanwhile, Labourâs troubles on Brexit rumble on. This morning, Diane Abbott tweeted to a Jeremy Corbyn supporter who felt his leaderâs attempts at compromise should now end: âLike you I have supported Labourâs Brexit strategy so far. But like you I am beginning to worryâŠâ
And if anyone needed any confirmation of the damage being done to Corbynâs reputation on the left, Momentum chief (and former close aide in the leaderâs office) Laura Parker was yesterday blunt about the problem. The Labour leaderâs âsimple authenticity has taken a hit, thereâs no way round itâ, she said. âIn the hierarchy of what counts, does honouring the result of people who are largely fed up and might not have voted before in 2016 count more or less than your membership, when you have talked about developing member-led party?â
Yesterday, after Margaret Beckett claimed Corbynâs aides didnât âgive a tossâ about membersâ views, the leaderâs spokesman said it was âlaughableâ to suggest he was âunder the control of anyoneâ. The spokesman did however point out that Unite was the biggest union in the public and private workplace. And on the public vote ballot paper he added this: âWe would expect Remain to be on the ballot paper in any referendum but of course we are talking about a number of uncertainties.
âAt the moment, thereâs no obvious mechanism to get a referendum. And what would be on the ballot paper, would depend on the circumstances and depend on parliamentâs decision.â
Morale within the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) plummeted once more after the PoliticsHome scoop yesterday that Chris Williamsonâs suspension for anti-semitism had been lifted. There are all sorts of suspicions as to why the three-person panel that lifted the suspension acted the way they did. The late change in personnel on the panel was called into question too.
Many Labour MPs seized on the fact that NEC member Huda Elmi, who was on the panel, had previously called the Equalities and Human Rights Commission (which is investigating Labourâs alleged antisemitism) a âfailed experimentâ. But some on the Left said that the real problem was Keith Vaz, another panel member, who had apparently warned that Williamson should be let off with a warning because he was in a marginal seat and Labour MPs had two weeks to say if they wanted to stand again.
Iâm told that Elmi and Vaz were prepared to send Williamsonâs case to the National Constitutional Committee (the quasi-judicial body handling such complaints) - as recommended by party staff. But the pair felt that he would have been spared any sanction even at the NCC. One senior NEC source tells me there is a âsilver liningâ: âWhile suspended from the Party, Chris Williamson couldnât face a trigger ballot. Now he can be and I strongly hope he is deselected.â
On ITVâs Peston last night, shadow minister Dawn Butler said âI probably would have imposed a tougher punishmentâŠâ but on SkyNews todayRuth Smeeth was scathing. She said that the NEC membersâ role in not adopting the party staff recommendations showed there was âclearly political interferenceâ. âItâs yet another slap on the wrist.â
Watch David Gauke talk of his anxiety about entryism into the Tory party, saying the member campaigning against him locally only joined in February
Labour MP Liam Byrne has talked for the first time about the 18 months of counselling he embarked on to help him come back from the âabyssâ of his mental health problems. In an interview for our CommonsPeople podcast, he explains how the shock of Jo Coxâs death led him to take off the âarmour platingâ heâd built up during a childhood as the son of an alcoholic.
Byrne explains how he âslept for three weeksâ in the summer of 2016, before his wife persuaded him to find counselling help. âIt was bloody awful to start with, really, really horribleâŠtaking that armour plating off for the first time, making yourself vulnerable, itâs so weird that you just fall over.â And he says it has changed the way he does politics, as well as underlining his commitment to improve mental health services for all. Listen HERE from 19 mins 45 secs.
Today sees some serious history being made as the UK becomes the first major economy in the world to commit in law to setting a target of net zero emissions by 2050. Energy and clean growth minister Chris Skidmore signed the order that brought it into force after the Lords last night voted for regulations passed by the Commons on Monday. It may not get much attention, but in years to come todayâs date may well feature in kidsâ lessons on the history of the West waking up to the environmental emergency.
Still, Labourâs Thangam Debbonaire is seething about the way Theresa May inaccurately claimed the party was trying to âblockâ the changes in the Lords, when it was instead tabling a âregretâ motion pointing out that more had to be done.
COMMONS PEOPLE
Liam Byrne joined us on our CommonsPeople podcast this week. As well as his own struggles with mental health, we chat through the Tory leadership race and Labourâs internal problems on a second referendum. Not surprisingly, Liam was pretty good on the weekly, geeky politics quiz. Click HERE for Audioboom or below for iTunes.
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