With Two Years Left In Office, Here's The President's Z-Plan

Watch the political appointments, the nuclear deal and possibly action against the banks.
South Africa's President Jacob Zuma after speaking to members of the Twelve Apostles' Church in Christ at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban, South Africa, December 4, 2016.
South Africa's President Jacob Zuma after speaking to members of the Twelve Apostles' Church in Christ at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban, South Africa, December 4, 2016.
Rogan Ward / Reuters

President Jacob Zuma's strategy for his final two years in office is clarifying its direction. Three indicators of this are the potential appointment of former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe as an MP; the acceleration of the nuclear reactor deal and a clearer definition of radical economic transformation as action against the banks.

Weekend revelations by the Sunday Times that former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe is set to become an MP, provides evidence to back up a long-running rumour that he is set for higher office.

Molefe was a former Treasury dynamo specialising in debt management and with excellent knowledge of the management of public finance. Political circles have, since the third quarter of last year, buzzed with the view that he was to replace Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

Zuma has, in three speeches delivered between November and December last year, made it clear that Gordhan's reappointment to the Treasury in December 2015 had been forced upon him.

In December 2015, the president fired Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene and appointed Des van Rooyen in his place. When the markets tanked and a political crisis ensued, the governing ANC stepped in to ensure Gordhan's reappointment in a weekend of high drama.

Since then, Zuma has thrice declared Van Rooyen the most qualified finance minister he had appointed (technically correct but not politically so) and, in December last year, he told ANC activists that they should be ready if the president acted again.

He now seems set to do so. At the same time, the nuclear deal the president has long desired is steaming ahead with a request for information put out by Eskom. Zuma has taken personal command of a cabinet committee assessing the viability of a nuclear procurement. Protracted negotiations have brought down the number of reactors the state plans to buy, but there is renewed vigour to carry out the deal despite reports from a panel appointed by government and by Parliament's budget office questioning the need for nuclear in a low economic growth scenario.

Low growth has dampened demand for electricity and, together with Molefe's better management of Eskom, ended the power cuts, which threatened the economy and society.

A third set of evidence that provides insight into the president's strategy is a report out of last week's ANC lekgotla, which says he required tougher definitions of radical economic transformation and a more muscular approach to the banks specifically and to business generally from his team.

Last year, Minister of Mineral Resources Mosebenzi Zwane put out a statement saying the president would appoint a judicial commission of inquiry into the banks after they closed the accounts of the Gupta family who are close to the president. The Presidency denied this but Zwane has never retracted the statement. Zuma appointed an inter-ministerial committee headed by Zwane to probe the banks' decision.

Gordhan refused to be part of that committee and instead approached the court to declare that he cannot interfere in relations between banks and their clients. That case comes to court at the end of March, while Gupta associate Salim Essa is trying to buy the Habib Overseas bank, a small boutique bank based in the Oriental Plaza.

With about 10 months to go before his time is up as ANC president, Zuma is reflecting a focused politics of self-interest. While he will still serve for about 18 months as country president after the ANC conference in December, his power to accumulate resources and to determine policy and procurement will be radically curtailed when he no longer holds the party top job.

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