Uncertainty is in the air again. Predictably so. After all, there is massive churn in the UK: private sector companies coming to terms with changing market conditions; unprecedented disruptions in the public sector as budgets shrink and both jobs and services evaporate; and an unstable stock market with a 15% loss in value since July.
Riots and wars don't help: they suggest that our world is coming apart at the seams.
The impact is that we worry. We become uncertain about mortgage payments, whether they'll go up and whether we'll be able to afford to pay them. We worry about losing our jobs, or changes to our jobs. We worry about our children. Our anxiety mechanisms initially built to enable us to survive the uncertainty of being something else's prey on the savannah, are shoved into overdrive.
Yet all this can be changed in a heartbeat by altering our perspective. Or, as they say in the trade, by reframing things.
After all, little is really certain. Franklin said death and taxes. But the truth is that only the former could be guaranteed not to change. (He might have said "increasing taxes"). In this mental state with heightened levels of anxiety, we are easy meat to those peddling certainty.
Best not to crave absolutes; you are only likely to be disappointed. It may be better to accept uncertainty is just another way of saying that, as entrepreneur Ronald Cohen suggests, you simply don't have all the facts. And may be you won't get them so you'll have to do the best you can.
You can increase certainty a little by understanding how things work. The market may, for example, appear to be unfathomable but it's driven by companies seeking to increase their market share, profitability, reach and return. We may not say that greed is good anymore but it's still a driving force in day to day life.
Equally, organisations will look for ways of reducing costs. If you look like you're surplus to requirements, you soon will be. Apparently, over 80% of UK organisations outsource their work in some form or another. For some it will be simple subcontracting to someone at the end of the road; for others, it's a wholesale shift of production to the Far East - or at least to somewhere far away.
No relief
At this point, you won't feel any better. It's probably just what you've been worried about.
But think on this: we're all in it together. Nobody knows about anything for sure. If you haven't already done so, read Nicholas Taleb's excellent book, the Black Swan. The past is not a useful guide to the future. Anyone who says it is probably stands to gain from the deception: financiers, pension fund managers, and the rest.
Three thoughts on reducing your concern about the fragility that is life.
1. Think about the worst and what you would do if it were to happen. You can't know what may happen in five seconds, for sure, so why worry about what might happen in five days, months or years. But you can be sure about what you will do if it does. It's not what happens that matters - it's how you react.
2. Keep a parachute in the study drawer. A friend of mine used to be in the forces and had to keep a fully packed kit in the wardrobe. Worst case, he'd be called somewhere and have to head for the nearest airport ready to take up arms at the other end. Your parachute might look like the following: an up to date CV; regular training; keeping up to speed with developments in your field; 6 months salary to keep the bills paid whilst you find some other way of earning a crust; a strong network; and a source of intelligence about trends.
3. Remember that if you're prepared for anything, you're more likely to survive if something horrible should happen. Change will come. You will affected at some point. Get your running shoes on now - you will need them. It's not just whether you're fast but whether you're quicker than the competition.
One final thing: think about what triggers your bouts of worry. Chances are that you've got your head plugged into a number of information networks which feed you news on developing things: stories, news, information about friends and colleagues, share prices, changes in the political sphere, gossip.
If these things cause you to feel uncertain, turn off the tap. The world will still be there when, or if, you switch it on again. That's because each information source is driven by a set of values which are little more than takes on the real world. They are not the real world but abstractions which seek to inform, entertain, cajole, malign, sell papers.
Uncertainty is not just a fact of life - it is life itself.