UK Polling

Can We Ever Trust The Polls Again?

Ryan Wain | Posted 01.08.2017 | UK Politics
Ryan Wain

Polls are politics' data-processing sausage factories - most people don't care how they work, they just want them to be right. They want to trust to them. The willingness is there, evidenced by an onslaught of surveys following the last election. This appetite, married with a commitment to transparency and investment from the pollsters, is good news. Indeed, anything that provides informed objectivity outside our social media filter bubble must be championed.

We Stand Together But Who Stands For Us?

Roger Harding | Posted 07.06.2017 | UK Politics
Roger Harding

Thursday's result could give the impression that the country has made a clear decision about its future, but our work suggests otherwise. If Theresa May does win significantly, her challenge will be to represent the majority of the country who do not see themselves in her government. If Labour lose, the party's leadership team will need to account for why they have increasingly become an irrelevance to the working class Corbyn isn't of, but is so keen to represent.

In The Shadow Of Two Elections

Shudong Li | Posted 06.06.2017 | UK Universities & Education
Shudong Li

You may not have time now, but that's ok, there are plenty more chances. You may not have the motivation, that I cannot help with. But know this, every time you complain about something of governance whether nationally or locally, what is your answer to the question. Why don't you do something about it?

Questions Are Obsolete - The Information Is Out There

Dmitry Bagrov | Posted 02.05.2017 | UK Tech
Dmitry Bagrov

While in the first round of the French Presidential election, opinion polls got the results to within 1% correct, the industry as a whole has taken qu...

Polls And Politics: There's No Mandate For A Hard Brexit

Molly Scott Cato | Posted 17.01.2017 | UK Politics
Molly Scott Cato

Theresa May's announcement that the UK will leave the single market will inevitably mean every single family in the UK will face significant financial loss. Given the polling that suggests people are prepared to sacrifice almost nothing to regain the right to make our own laws, hard Brexit could quickly become one of the most destructive and unpopular decisions ever made by a British government.

Brexit Focus Groups: Business Decision-Makers' Views Six Months After The Vote

Jerry Latter | Posted 16.12.2016 | UK Politics
Jerry Latter

Last week, we conducted two online discussion groups to explore the Brexit-related views of senior decision-makers in small businesses (with 1-50 employees) and medium sized organisations (250-999 employees). Participants were chosen from a spread of different industries, sectors, and views of Brexit - both in terms of how they voted and how they think the result has affected their business.

Can Social Media Data Save The Polls?

Jason Smith | Posted 16.12.2016 | UK Tech
Jason Smith

When it comes to political decisions, there are few that were talked about more on social media than the EU Referendum. In the six weeks leading up to the vote, there were 54 million tweets about Brexit. These tweets were collated in the Press Association's live referendum data hub.

Has Andrea Leadsom Got The Message After Tories Rally Against Hunting?

Eduardo Goncalves | Posted 07.10.2016 | UK Politics
Eduardo Goncalves

Voters in Andrea Leadsom's own constituency -and indeed those in the constituency of Theresa May - are opposed by huge margins to a return to fox-hunting. According to a projection carried out by Ipsos MORI, 81% of voters Andrea Leadsom's constituency back the Hunting Act, with just 18% favouring repeal. In Theresa May's constituency, the figure is 80%.

Turning Around The Trust Tanker: Three Clues On Getting Started

David Evans | Posted 03.10.2016 | UK Politics
David Evans

"We have entered an age of post-truth politics." So declared the New York Times last month. They are, of course, not alone in seeing things this way. ...

Brexit Showed Why Trump Could Win

Grant Feller | Posted 26.07.2017 | UK Politics
Grant Feller

I've read thousands of words about why Donald Trump won't be President. Surely, he can't. Really, he mustn't. Honestly, he shouldn't. But the intellect of these highly paid and pleading columnists is nowhere near as revealing as the extraordinary conversation I heard the other day in one of New York's most exclusive areas.

#DogsAtPollingStations Is Back To Encourage You To Get Out And Vote

The Huffington Post | Ryan Barrell | Posted 23.06.2016 | UK Comedy

Once again, it's time for Britain to go to the polls. A high turnout is expected in today's EU referendum despite heavy rain and flooding in some area...

What Does Labour Need to Do to Swing Ultra-Marginals Like Nuneaton in 2020?

James Morris | Posted 10.05.2017 | UK Politics
James Morris

Nuneaton was one of twenty-three ultra-marginals the party had identified as crucial to determining whether Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister. It will be just as important in 2020: if Labour is going to form the next government, it has to sway the people of Nuneaton. We recently conducted focus groups with former Labour voters there to see how Labour were progressing.

The Beckett Report Only Scratches the Surface of Labour's Problems

Matt Hawkins | Posted 24.01.2017 | UK Politics
Matt Hawkins

Labour needs a clear vision, communicated through a well-orchestrated media strategy, offering up policies that seem relevant now and in four years' time.... All of this might be achievable if Labour wasn't wracked by deep, emotional divisions that started back well before Corbyn became leader...

The Waugh Zone January 19, 2016

The Huffington Post UK | Paul Waugh | Posted 19.01.2016 | UK Politics

The five things you need to know on Tuesday January 19, 2016… 1) JUNE BUG Downing Street sounds increasingly confident of a decent deal on t...

How the Fearmongering 'Sun' Distorts Its Polls

Professor Steven Barnett | Posted 23.11.2016 | UK
Professor Steven Barnett

Today's front page headline in the Sun covers almost the entire page. Accompanied by a chilling photo of a knife-wielding "Jihadi John" in black balaclava, it proclaims "1 IN 5 BRIT MUSLIMS' SYMPATHY FOR JIHADIS". It is a lie. Even worse, it is a shameful distortion of its own polling data, consciously designed to fuel terror and distrust of Muslims.

As Things Stand, the EU Referendum Is on a Knife Edge

James Morris | Posted 11.11.2016 | UK Politics
James Morris

If David Cameron succeeds in his efforts to negotiate a better deal from the EU, our new poll shows that he adds 10 points to the power of the remain campaign's argument with swing voters. But that is far from the biggest prize when it comes to winning the referendum...

Would a Fairer Voting System Be a Better System?

Peter Kellner | Posted 22.06.2016 | UK Politics
Peter Kellner

If, despite the clear outcome of the Alternative Vote referendum four years ago, we are to reopen a national conversation about the way we elect our MPs, we should at least start from a recognition that no system is ideal and that our choice depends on our priorities.

Election Day 2015: Live Images As They Come In

The Huffington Post UK | Tahira Mirza | Posted 07.05.2015 | UK

After weeks of party leaders hitting the streets and campaigning for votes, election day is finally upon us. With the polls between Labour and Cons...

Hydro-electric Power - Why a Coalition Government Could Make the UK Greener

Simon Thomas | Posted 30.06.2015 | UK Politics
Simon Thomas

The numbers speak for themselves. Hydro-electric power is currently the only renewable energy capable of replacing fossil fuels and it's about time we had a party in government that's going to get serious about cutting the UK's carbon footprint.

Polling Observatory Forecast - No Break in the Deadlock as Campaigns Reach the Halfway Point

Robert Ford | Posted 24.06.2015 | UK Politics
Robert Ford

Labour continue to depend on support in some form from the Scottish National Party to form a government - a combination of all natural allies excluding the SNP falls 10 seats short of an effective majority...

Labour 20 Seats Ahead in the first Polling Observatory forecast Model

Robert Ford | Posted 19.05.2015 | UK Politics
Robert Ford

The Polling Observatory forecasting model has been a long time in the making, and builds on our effort in 2010, where we fared relatively successfully...

Polling Observatory March 2015 Update: Parties Neck-and-neck as We Approach the Formal Campaign

Robert Ford | Posted 15.05.2015 | UK Politics
Robert Ford

As we approach the electoral business-end of this parliament, the party machines are gearing up for the campaign proper - with a lot of nervous watching of the polls for signs of a sea change in opinion.

Watching the First Election After the Coup

Meg Munn | Posted 02.12.2014 | UK Politics
Meg Munn

I'm a politician who loves election days - the campaigning stops and the voter makes their choice at the ballot box, but on the 17th September I swapped my rosette for a high vis jacket with 'observer' on the back. My job was not to persuade people who to vote for, but watch the election process as Fiji went to the polls for the first time since the 2006 coup.

New Poll Gives Ukip And Nigel Farage Post-Debate Boost

Press Association | Posted 12.04.2014 | UK

Support for Ukip has increased to 20% after Nigel Farage's head-to-head debates with Nick Clegg over the EU, while the Conservatives have scored their...

Immigration - Are We Talking About It?

Tom Frere-Smith | Posted 18.05.2014 | UK Politics
Tom Frere-Smith

Politicians from all parties have traditionally struggled to make their rhetoric on immigration chime with the British public's views. New findings from Ipsos MORI showing a divergence of public opinion on the subject, may explain why.