UK Polling

Labour 20 Seats Ahead in the first Polling Observatory forecast Model

Robert Ford | Posted 19.03.2015 | UK Politics
Robert Ford

The Polling Observatory forecasting model has been a long time in the making, and builds on our effort in 2010, where we fared relatively successfully...

Polling Observatory March 2015 Update: Parties Neck-and-neck as We Approach the Formal Campaign

Robert Ford | Posted 17.03.2015 | UK Politics
Robert Ford

As we approach the electoral business-end of this parliament, the party machines are gearing up for the campaign proper - with a lot of nervous watching of the polls for signs of a sea change in opinion.

Watching the First Election After the Coup

Meg Munn | Posted 02.12.2014 | UK Politics
Meg Munn

I'm a politician who loves election days - the campaigning stops and the voter makes their choice at the ballot box, but on the 17th September I swapped my rosette for a high vis jacket with 'observer' on the back. My job was not to persuade people who to vote for, but watch the election process as Fiji went to the polls for the first time since the 2006 coup.

New Poll Gives Ukip And Nigel Farage Post-Debate Boost

Press Association | Posted 12.04.2014 | UK

Support for Ukip has increased to 20% after Nigel Farage's head-to-head debates with Nick Clegg over the EU, while the Conservatives have scored their...

Immigration - Are We Talking About It?

Tom Frere-Smith | Posted 18.05.2014 | UK Politics
Tom Frere-Smith

Politicians from all parties have traditionally struggled to make their rhetoric on immigration chime with the British public's views. New findings from Ipsos MORI showing a divergence of public opinion on the subject, may explain why.

Changing the Narrative: The Challenge of the 2015 Budget

Laurence Stellings | Posted 17.05.2014 | UK Politics
Laurence Stellings

If not specifics, then, what will the Chancellor be hoping to achieve with the Budget? He will want to try and convince voters that the economic recovery is bringing some benefits for them, their families and their households...

The View From Benefits Street

Laurence Stellings | Posted 22.03.2014 | UK
Laurence Stellings

While few political commentators, bloggers and pundits have yet to offer a view on Channel 4's Benefits Street, a programme dubbed 'poverty porn' by critics, there is one voice largely missing from the debate: that of those receiving benefits across Britain.

David Cameron's Re-Election In Trouble, Poll Shows Tory Voters Abandoning Party

The Huffington Post UK | Ned Simons | Posted 25.01.2014 | UK Politics

The huge difficulty David Cameron will have winning a majority at the next election has been laid bare by a new poll published today, which reveals mo...

Shouting Above the Noise: Lessons for Political and Corporate Communicators

Laurence Stellings | Posted 03.02.2014 | UK Politics
Laurence Stellings

Communicators - politicians, corporate spokespeople, charity campaigners - have always faced challenges when trying to get their messages through to voters, consumers and the public...

Ed Miliband Can't Lose

Daniel Wood | Posted 23.01.2014 | UK Politics
Daniel Wood

It is bandied about by the press that the 2015 general election will be competitive. Naturally, sustaining such a narrative sells papers. However, when observing the statistics with an impassive and unpartisan mindset, one realises that not only is the general election Labour's to lose; it is almost inconceivable that the party could lose it.

18 Months to Go: Meet the 2015 Electoral Battleground

Laurence Stellings | Posted 23.01.2014 | UK Politics
Laurence Stellings

Every election campaign targets particular types of voters and some come to be defined by swing groups: Mondeo Man, Worcester Woman, Soccer Moms. Indeed, the political lexicon is awash with such groups "hard-working families", "the squeezed middle, "strivers" and "alarm-clock Britain" amongst others. As we hit the 18 month mark to the 2015 General Election there is, naturally, increasing interest in this electoral battleground...

Public Disenfranchisement With Politics: A Myth or Reality?

Dan Holliday | Posted 23.01.2014 | UK Politics
Dan Holliday

It has been said that the British political system is bankrupt. One scandal after another has seen people lose faith in Britain's institutions and in the political process as a whole. A new paradigm way of thinking is needed. Is this mere unhelpful rhetoric, or genuinely the deal?

Conferences? What Conferences?

Peter Kellner | Posted 23.01.2014 | UK Politics
Peter Kellner

Normal service has resumed. Parliament is back; for all bar a small, obsessive minority, memories of the party conferences have faded. As usual, they provided polling as well as political dramas...

Who Should Take Part in TV Debates?

Peter Kellner | Posted 23.01.2014 | UK Politics
Peter Kellner

Once again, Sky News has taken the lead. It spearheaded the broadcasters successful campaign to secure leader's debates in the 2010 general election. Now John Ryley, head of Sky News, has proposed a formula for debates in 2015. His main proposal is that Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, should be excluded. Voters think differently....

Shale Gas Dispute - Not All It's Fracked Up To Be

Richard Bridger | Posted 30.10.2013 | UK Politics
Richard Bridger

The debate over fracking seems to have excited a great deal of people. It's an existential crisis at the heart of the Conservative Party. It will 'threaten God's glorious creation'. It will reduce energy prices. Or maybe not... Is fracking really such a contentious issue? Yes and no.

Ed Miliband Polls: We're Being Played

Bonnie Greer | Posted 21.10.2013 | UK Politics
Bonnie Greer

Why is all this "play the man not the ball" stuff rolling out from Tory HQ and their friends in the press? It's to divert us from the really big political story: that the Tory Party is in deep trouble. Their famed grassroots operation is shrivelling up. The foot soldiers are defecting to Ukip in their droves.

Are Labour and the Tories Really Level-Pegging?

Peter Kellner | Posted 14.09.2013 | UK Politics
Peter Kellner

ICM's latest poll for the Guardian is so striking that it deserves attention. Every poll by every company since the spring of last year has shown Labour in the lead. Suddenly ICM says that lead has disappeared. It now puts Labour and the Conservatives neck-and-neck, with 36% each. Can this be true?

British People Are Wrong About Everything: Here's Why

The Conversation UK | Posted 11.09.2013 | UK Politics
The Conversation UK

By Bobby Duffy, King's College London People are wildly wrong when we ask them about many aspects of life in Britain, as shown in a new survey b...

Conservative Member Survey Paints a Rather Gloomy Picture for Cameron

Anthony Wells | Posted 07.09.2013 | UK Politics
Anthony Wells

It would be easy to imagine that political party members would by definition be supporters of the party leadership, the most devoted and enthusiastic of anyone in the country. This is not necessarily the case, especially since winning elections normally requires a party leader to reach out beyond his or her party's natural support... Sometimes the relationship between party leaders and their party membership can be a fractious one.

Poll Reveals How Many Tories Would Consider Voting Ukip

PA/The Huffington Post UK | Posted 08.07.2013 | UK Politics

Almost a fifth of Conservative Party members are considering voting for the UK Independence Party (Ukip), a new poll suggests. And more than half d...

Cigarette Packets: The Case for a New Law

Peter Kellner | Posted 25.06.2013 | UK Politics
Peter Kellner

So the consultation is over. The relevant minister is convinced. The Liberal Democrats support a new law – indeed they were the first major party to embrace it, back in 2009. Yet the issue remains in the balance. So let me help ministers by setting out the pros and cons.

Why Did the Pollsters Miss Beppe Grillo?

Jamie Bartlett | Posted 27.04.2013 | UK Politics
Jamie Bartlett

Grillo causes a big problem for polling companies. While mainstream candidates tend to end up close to predictions, new, populist, and radical parties often confound them.

Making the Case For Aid

Bobby Duffy | Posted 20.02.2013 | UK Politics
Bobby Duffy

If politicians are looking for where they can do the most real good for the least cost in cash and political capital, foreign aid should be at the top of their list.

The Perilous Politics of Immigration

Peter Kellner | Posted 16.02.2013 | UK Politics
Peter Kellner

Interpreting public opinion on immigration can be a tricky business. Knowing what POLICIES the public want is straightforward enough; the tough bit is making sense of the POLITICAL IMPACT of the issue.

Time to Talk About Immigration

Joseph Hayman | Posted 07.01.2013 | UK Politics
Joseph Hayman

The country has changed hugely, trust in institutions has fallen, a job for life is an idea of the past while the future looks deeply uncertain. It is no wonder that many people feel anxious and insecure. Addressing those insecurities does not mean abandoning pro-immigration principles or pandering to anyone - it means having the humility to accept that many others see things differently, seeking to understand why they do and trying to change their minds.