We can close our eyes to these probabilities now, safe in the knowledge that a 1980s-style polarised debate between unilateralists and multilateralists can only benefit the Conservative Party. But those with any genuine concern for the national security of this country must look beyond such tempting gains and see the underlying threats before we face far more painful choices later in the programme.
Trident isn't about defending the country from attack, it's about trying to perpetuate the delusion that the UK is still a major player in the world. It's there to keep the United Kingdom at the top table of the UN Security Council and enjoy the kudos that goes with it. It is a political and military ego-trip that is being paid for by every taxpayer in the country.
Instead of complaining about the parliamentary procedure, or keeping quiet, those of us who believe in a nuclear weapons-free Britain should be making our case heard - within our parties and to the wider world. Ultimately we'll only build a nuclear weapons-free world if we're willing to make a stand and lead the way.
As parties and voters head away from nuclear weapons, it is hard to see how the Tory government can legitimately proceed with its plans to replace Trident. As today's results reaffirm, Scotland has categorically and repeatedly voted against it and as host country to the Trident submarines that has to be a major factor in any replacement decision.
As Emily Thornberry, Shadow Defence Secretary, closes the consultation period on her defence review, critics of the review have been engaging on the substance. They worry that minds currently are just a little too open to alternatives for comfort, and that a non-Trident alternative could become Labour policy...
Reassurances without evidence from institutions or politicians heavily committed to the renewal project hold little credibility in the face of clear and emerging technologies that could not only undermine the advantage of the submarine, but leave us with an expensive and destabilising system. We need to reopen the Trident Alternatives Review and do a better job this time.
On too many issues Labour aped the Tories for too long. It set itself apart from people like me - afraid to call itself socialist, even as the inequalities and injustices inherent in capitalism were plain for all to see. I never again want to watch as Labour MPs cheer a Labour prime minister announcing that tens of thousands of civil servants will lose their jobs, while public services are being privatised, lining wealthy shareholders' pockets.