North Korea took steps to further seal itself off from the outside world on Tuesday, as the country continued to mourn the death of Kim Jong-il on December 18.
The autocrat's 28-year old son and heir Kim Jong-un was shown visiting the body of his father as it lay in state, as international policymakers and markets focus on the succession process in a secretive and unpredictable nuclear-armed country.
The country's mourning period will last for 10 days, after which political manoeuvring is likely to begin in earnest, analysts said. Kim Jong-un has been increasingly moved into what passes for the limelight in North Korea, being given military ranks and appearing alongside his father at state functions after Kim Jong-il's reported stroke in 2008.
He has now been effectively named "the great successor", analysts said, but most observers admit that they are just that - observers - left to read what few signals emerge from a country so locked down that news of its leaders' death did not break until two days after the event, and where, reputedly, intelligence services in the South were uncertain of the name of the third son, who will now lead their neighbour.
"North Korea remains an extremely closed and secretive regime, and information about leadership dynamics is sparse. There is a high degree of uncertainty around the course of the transition in the coming months and years," David Gordon, head of research at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group wrote in a note to clients.
Kim Jong-il's brother in law Jang Sung-taek is believed to be a key figure in the transition period, Gordon noted. The husband to Kim's sister, thought to be a trusted confidant, has been positioned as a "regent" figure, he said.
North Korean state media broadcast images of wailing and weeping citizens, and international observers warned of the dangers of a resurgence of nationalism. Sabre-rattling against the south, which in the past has included shelling and attacks on warships, is a distinct possibility, as the younger Kim responds to a need to assert himself.
Newswires in South Korea and in China reported that borders were effectively closed, and the authorities have indicated that no foreign dignitaries are invited to the leader's funeral.
Markets initially reacted badly to the news, with the South Korean won falling 2% and the equity market, the Kospi, down by more than 3% on Monday. However, they recovered slightly on Tuesday.
Baring Asset Management's Asian investment director Hyung Jin Lee said that the market was looking for signs that the succession was being accepted domestically and internationally.
"Politically, the key thing to look for will be evidence that the ruling elite are backing Kim Jong-un," Lee said.
"This could come in the form of acceptance of foreign aid, or widespread media coverage of the new leader providing “on the spot guidance” to workers as the propaganda machine establishes him as a worthy successor to eternal president Kim il-Sung.
"Externally, we will be looking for signs of support from China, North Korea’s most important political partner. Official support or a state visit, either to Pyongyang or of Kim Jong-un to Beijing, would be a strong indicator that conditions have stabilised again.