As David Cameron plans his expected cabinet reshuffle, widely thought to be announced in September, he'll be mulling over several scenarios. Here's a few of them. It's not an exhaustive list and it's quite possible any final reshuffle could contain elements of all of them. What becomes apparent quite quickly is that to perform a significant reshuffle some senior people would need to be given the push, and sending former Cabinet ministers to the backbenches always has political consequences...
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- Blogpost - why Cameron needs to refresh his team as the coalition continues to flounder
- ResHUFFLe blog - the latest rumours and speculation
The Osborne Out Option
Seems unlikely, even in the face of a worsening recession and accusations that he dropped the ball over the "omnishambles" 2012 Budget. Everything that follows is considered fairly hypothetical and a flight of fancy, yet moving Osborne out of the Treasury would open things up for a full reshuffle.
There's been speculation that William Hague could be moved into Number 11 to replace Osborne, in addition sources close to defence secretary Philip Hammond have been quietly pushing for him to become Chancellor. Hammond is considered a safe pair of hands and tends to bring stability to every department he runs. Perhaps because he's so impassive and tedious to interview, Hammond's stewardship tends to suck all drama out of his ministerial roles. Yet Hammond is a shrewd political operator and a Commons bruiser, when he needs to be.
Under this unlikely scenario Osborne could find himself working far more behind the scenes, getting the Tories ready for the next general election. It's certainly true that Cameron needs a top player in this role over the next couple of years. To win an outright majority Cameron would have to increase the Tories' share of the vote at the next election, something that previous prime ministers have found almost impossible, even at the best of times.
The Dinosaur Extinction Gambit
Under this limited scenario Ken Clarke, Cheryl Gillan and (possibly) Vince Cable are put out to pasture, allowing promising ministers to join the cabinet. You'd see competent people like Nick Herbert promoted to justice secretary, Maria Miller takes on the Welsh brief and David Laws returns to the Cabinet as business secretary. Nice and clean, the option puts good people in key positions without upsetting the apple cart.
A drawback to this, you might say, is that Ken Clarke is crucial to keeping the internal Tory balance within Cabinet. Rumours circulate that Clarke is getting increasingly snoozy and needs to be retired - though these are privately quashed by senior people at Justice.
It's also a struggle to see a coalition cabinet without Vince Cable, who would almost certainly be trouble on the backbenches. Everything he said would be taken as both a sign of Lib Dem annoyance, plus a leadership challenge to Nick Clegg.
At the very least we're likely to see Gillan leave the Cabinet, whether Cameron would be bold enough to have a bigger clear-out is less certain. Sir George Young, the 71 year-old Leader of the Commons, is also widely expected to be put out to pasture.
The solid top / fluid bottom shuffle
This scenario would see lots of junior ministers moving around, but most members of the Cabinet itself more or less staying in the same place. It would see a clear-out of underperforming ministers (there are mutterings about the future of prisons minister Crispin Blunt and justice minister Jonathan Djanogly, for example).
The David Laws Manoeuvre
Most agree that if David Laws is to return to Cabinet, being education secretary would be a good fit. Laws was the Lib Dems' education spokesman in opposition, and arguably Michael Gove has already done much of the heavy lifting by getting the Free Schools reforms through Parliament and ensuring the programme of conversion to Academies has stayed on-track.
What Cameron would do with Gove is a bit less clear. Gove would like very much to be foreign secretary, with strong views on Iran at a time when a crisis over the country's nuclear programme seems likely to come to a head later in the year. But it's hard to see where you'd put William Hague (assuming the option of moving him to the Treasury is a no-go).
With the conundrum of keeping a fixed number of Lib Dems in Cabinet, whichever position Laws fills upon his return another Lib Dem would have to go - which means either Michael Moore, Ed Davey or Vince Cable would have to make way.