Labour has a massive lead in next week's by-election, latest polls show.
Some pundits have tipped Ukip to win the battle to success Paul Goggins as the MP for Wythenshawe & Sale East.
Labour MP Goggins died last month after collapsing while running aged 60.
But Thursday's poll, published by former Tory donor Lord Ashcroft, gives a thumping lead to Labour's candidate, local councillor Mike Kane.
Ed Miliband's party is on 61%, while Ukip (15%) is just ahead of the Tories (14%) in the battle for second place.
The Liberal Democrats are trailing on 5%.
Analysing the results, Ashcroft said Ukip had more than quadrupled their vote share in the constituency since 2010.
And despite Labour's handsome lead, he pointed out that when asked, only a minority of voters in the Greater Manchester constituency would prefer Ed Miliband to David Cameron as Prime Minister.
Ukip are "making their presence felt", Ashcroft said, with plenty of leaflets delivered through voters' doors.
"We will see in seven days whether their activity can do anything to loosen Labour’s grip", he added.