South African deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa has finally raised his hand and declared his desire to be the next leader of the African National Congress (ANC), but he faces a monumental task if he is to convince key provincial structures to back him. And sources within the party say his support base is not at its strongest.
"His support stems from the South African Communist Party (SACP), the Congress Of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), Gauteng province and a rebel group in KwaZulu-Natal," said an ANC source who spoke to The Huffington Post South Africa on Thursday.
"In Gauteng, the support base is very weak, with most of it coming from Paul Mashatile's side. That group is weak because they don't have the backing of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni or the West Rand, and their support in Johannesburg and Sedibeng is very divided," he said.
He further said that support for Ramaphosa in Gauteng was also dependent on which slate the provincial chairperson Paul Mashatile could be accommodated on. Gauteng has a reputation for opposing President Jacob Zuma. Both provincial leaders and ordinary members have expressed this vocally on a number of occasions.
KwaZulu-Natal, on the other hand, has endorsed Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who is tipped to be Ramaphosa's strongest challenger for the position.
"If they go to a [the elective] conference with the current set up, they will have serious problems. His candidacy is compromised by his support base. They will not emerge victorious," said the source.
The source added that in order for Ramaphosa to erode Dlamini-Zuma's support base in KwaZulu-Natal, he would need to have one person from the province in his top 6. Many are calling for the treasurer general Zweli Mkhize to be Ramaphosa's right-hand man.
Ramaphosa on Wednesday said he was available to take on the position of president of the ANC in 2017, should he garner enough support to do so.
"It would be very humbling to get into a key position like that, to lead," said Ramaphosa. "I am available to stand," he said in an interview on radio station Power FM.
In November, Cosatu endorsed Ramaphosa as its preferred candidate to lead the ANC once Zuma's tenure ends in December 2017.
Another party source said Ramaphosa would struggle to garner support in Mpumalanga and the Free State, which are seen as Zuma strongholds.
David Mabuza and Ace Magashule, the premiers of Mpumalanga and the Free State respectively, along with their North West counterpart Supra Mahumapelo (who are often referred to as "The Premier League") are staunch Zuma backers.
The source said despite those three provinces being pro-Zuma, one might turn due to outside factors.
"It could still go in any direction in the North West. The Northern Cape and the Western Cape are not serious game changers and they don't have the numbers. The Eastern Cape is divided between Gwede Mantashe and Jacob Zuma. Mantashe wants to be the national chairperson or the president. Limpopo is working with Zuma," said the source.
Members in Mpumalanga said they had not started discussing the succession battle yet but were adamant they would not throw their weight behind Ramaphosa.
A move in the right direction
Political analysts have viewed Ramaphosa's decision to announce his campaign as the correct move, in that it helps to make the minds of those who aren't sure whether to back him or not. University of Pretoria Professor Tinyinko Maluleke said people were starting to question whether they are doing the right thing by backing Ramaphosa.
"He had to speak up and assure the people and ease the pressure a bit," said Maluleke. He added that the fact that Ramaphosa is not going directly against the president of the organisation might count in his favour with people who believe that a deputy president should rightfully succeed the incumbent.
Wits University School of Governance Professor Susan Booysen said Ramaphosa's announcement came at the right time as Zuma and his camp are on the back foot. She said although Ramaphosa is capitalising on this faction's difficult time of late, things that happened under Zuma will affect his prospects.
"Questions will be asked why he was silent when things were going wrong. He has to prove himself to the people," she said.
Booysen added that in order for Ramaposa to convince ANC structures to back him, he would have to find a balance in his top six. She said having Lindiwe Sisulu and Naledi Pandor in his top six might help him.
It could be a very gender-balanced slate, which could work to counter the Dlamini-Zuma and Baleka Mbete slate.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga said it is never too early to start campaigning. Ramaphosa has the opportunity to weigh his campaign and support base to make an informed decision if he needs to make a compromise, he said.
Mathekga, however, cautioned those contesting the position and the party to avoid politics of slates.
"They need to avoid slates because they will come out bruised, but if they go with a compromise the party will come out united," said Mathekga.
All the analysts as well as sources within the organisation agree that in order for Ramaphosa to emerge victorious, he has to ensure that Mkhize is by his side and by so doing secure votes from KwaZulu-Natal. Once he has overcome that hurdle then he has to turn his attention to the Eastern Cape, another province that boasts large numbers. To capture the Eastern Cape, Ramaphosa has to ensure that Mantashe is in his corner.
But politics is about people and anything is possible. Maluleke said all the people in the current top six view themselves as presidential material and in order for one of them to succeed they would have to make sacrifices, which would force the party down a path it does not want to go.
"How do you support each other when you all have ambitions of being president? If they compromise it goes back to the issue of slate politics," he said.