Downing Street must have thought that Boris Johnson had survived the partygate affair.
Barely two months ago, the prime minister’s departure from Number 10 seemed almost inevitable, with Tory MPs publicly calling for him to quit and a vote of no confidence in the offing.
But then came the war in Ukraine, a foreign policy challenge which even the prime minister’s harshest critics acknowledge he has risen to.
While Johnson’s own personal ratings are still low, the most recent opinion polls have shown the Conservatives narrowing the gap on Labour – helping to calm those frayed Tory nerves.
However, the Metropolitan Police’s announcement this week that it had recommended 20 fixed penalty notices be handed out to some of those in attendance at the lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street and Whitehall has once again led many to question the prime minister’s ability to survive the scandal.
HuffPost UK has spoken to Tory MPs from across the party to assess Johnson’s chances of riding out the controversy and leading his party into the next general election in two years’ time.
Pork pie plotters and Jimmy Savile
It’s easy to forget just how grim things were for the prime minister at the height of the partygate scandal.
In January, as more details of Downing Street parties emerged on an almost daily basis, public anger was palpable, with Tory MPs’ postbags bulging with constituents’ complaints about the goings-on in Whitehall.
Nervous MPs representing the Red Wall seats they’d won at the 2019 election met to discuss whether to submit letters of no confidence in the PM.
This was dubbed the “pork pie plot” as one of those present, Alicia Kearns, represents the Melton Mowbray home of the savoury snack.
Things went from bad to worse for Johnson following his response to the publication of Sue Gray’s initial report into the affair.
Having apologised in the Commons for what had gone on, he then completely misjudged the mood among MPs by wrongly accusing Keir Starmer of failing to prosecute Jimmy Savile when he was director of public prosecutions.
Tory MPs were appalled, and many more broke cover to either call on him to quit or confirm they had submitted letters of no confidence to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady.
However, the threshold of 54 letters was never reached, and on February 24, everything changed.
Russia invades Ukraine
Vladimir Putin’s decision to authorise a land invasion of his neighbour may have created an international crisis, but it also presented Johnson with an opportunity to move on from partygate and, potentially, save his premiership.
All of a sudden, arguments about whether or not the PM ate some cake at a surprise birthday party seemed rather insignificant in the face of a brutal conflict, the deaths of thousands of civilians and the displacement of millions of refugees.
And while the government has been criticised for its refusal to waive visa requirements for Ukrainians trying to flee to the UK, Johnson has also been praised for the military aid Britain is providing, as well as the rapport he has struck up with president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But while partygate had faded into the political background, it had never completely gone away – as this week proved.
A fine mess
The timing of the Met’s announcement caught Downing Street on the hop, and was far from ideal for the prime minister.
“If he was truly lucky, it would have happened right at the start of the war,” says one Tory MP. “It would have been completely swamped by Ukraine and he’d have been in the clear. But because it’s happened now, when the news agenda is starting to move on, it will be very tricky for Number 10.”
Johnson’s position hasn’t been helped by the government being unable to get its story straight on whether those fined have actually broken the law.
Deputy PM Dominic Raab and fellow cabinet minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan both conceded that they had, while Johnson himself has refused to do so.
The PM and his aides realise that his future will probably rest on whether he is personally fined, and whether the public – and Conservative MPs – will accept a law-breaker leading the country.
One MP who has submitted a no confidence letter said: “If he doesn’t get fined, he’s got away with it. But if he does, then all bets are off.
“I think there will be resignations from government. If the prime minister breaks the law, then consequences must flow.”
Two events in the past few days have also highlighted the weakness of Johnson’s own position.
On Tuesday, following a backbench rebellion, Tory whips were forced to back down after ordering their MPs to vote against a Labour motion demanding the publication of documents relating to the decision to give Evgeny Lebedev a peerage.
And on Thursday night, the PM performed two U-turns in the space of three hours after his decision to ditch a pledge to bring in a law banning conversion therapy sparked a furious backlash.
“Hubris is creeping back into Number 10, as evidenced by the poor whipping decision and swift u-turn on Lebedev,” said a senior MP. “His position is still fundamentally weak.”
Should he stay or should he go?
Opinion remains split among Tory MPs as to whether being fined by the police should be a resignation issue for the prime minister.
One said: “There was nothing to harm him with the 20 fixed penalty notices being issued. If he doesn’t get a fine, he’s not only fine, but probably strengthened. If he does, it will depend on the war situation as to what effect it has.
“I think that most colleagues will wait for the final Sue Gray report. If civil servants appeal their fines, she may delay until that is done. That probably pushes it past party conference and then he’s fine as the threat of an election is too close.”
But another backbencher said his colleagues should have no qualms about changing leaders mid-parliament.
“We’ve got a decent cabinet and we’ve got a very impressive defence secretary, so we should be able to deal with Ukraine even if the PM were to go,” they said.
One ex-minister, who has been highly critical of Johnson in the past, said: “My general view is that he’s probably survived it.”
And another former minister said: “I think partygate is now a non-issue. The whole world is different because of Ukraine. If he was to get fined that might change things, but otherwise I don’t see it going anywhere.”
Meanwhile, one minister said: “Honestly I think most of the public think partygate and cakegate is a distraction from the really urgent issues of Ukraine and the cost of living crisis.”
One former Cabinet minister, no fan of Johnson but who did not submit a letter of no confidence, said the PM will eventually be brought down – but it may not be this time.
“We’re all on the Johnson rollercoaster and it’s just a question of when we get thrown off,” the MP said.
“Eventually, things will catch up with him. Whether it’s tomorrow, next year or in five years, it will end badly.”
For now, the consensus among Tory MPs is that Johnson will most likely survive, but that he is not out of the woods yet. Indeed, it may be the Conservatives’ performance at next month’s local elections, rather than partygate, that does for him in the end.
One senior party figure told HuffPost UK: “If Ukraine is still the major political issue, then the council elections will probably be not too bad. But if we’ve moved back to partygate or people are really beginning to notice the cost of living crisis, then it could be a rough night.”
Ultimately, the thing that could do for Johnson isn’t partygate itself, but whether he is a hindrance to the Tories’ chances of winning the next election.
Were the party to have a disastrous night on May 5, that could focus the minds of those MPs with small majorities who are already nervous about the prospect of facing a resurgent Labour party in 2024.
Ukraine has won Johnson a reprieve, but his medium-term prospects remain highly uncertain.