With the apparent agreement of her cabinet, the Prime Minister has turned to the Labour Party to see whether it would be possible to garner enough support to get some version of her Withdrawal Agreement through the Houses of Commons. What are the chances of success? Not great. The divide is probably much too large to bridge.
The country desperately needs some resolution to the Brexit crisis which has consumed attention for much too long. Unfortunately, however, the same tensions which have made it so difficult to find any consensus in Parliament will probably dog the Prime Minister’s efforts to seek sufficient support from Labour to get her deal through the House. By contrast, Brexit on WTO terms may not be ideal but a recent poll showed 44% of the population favouring this way out of the current impasse.
The fundamental problem is that the UK has manoeuvred itself into facing a dismal range of choices on Brexit, reflecting the fact that there is still deep disagreement about what the end-state should be. Labour, however helpful it may want to be seen to be – although this has its own dangers – is understandably reluctant to be seen as supporting what is widely regarded by the electorate as a very poor deal. And quite right too.
The fact is that we have a Parliament with 70% to 80% of MPs leaning to Remain, and very reluctant to see the UK making a clean break from the Single Market and the Customs Union. Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would no doubt like to be seen as exhibiting statesman-like leadership to find a way through, but it is as torn by conflicting pressures as the Tories are.
Although many MPs and Party members are very keen on a Second Referendum, it is easy to see why Jeremy Corbyn has been so reluctant to commit Labour to support one being held. Apart from all the practical difficulties, although some 90% of Labour MPs are Remainers at heart and probably 80% of Labour Party members are too, perhaps as many as 50% of Labour’s traditional supporters are Leavers. Forty-five of the parliamentary seats which Labour needs to win to gain power have Leave majorities as do 16 of the 20 seats which Labour is most at risk of losing.
These factors all lead to both the Prime Minister and the Labour Party having little room for manoeuvre. Labour is keen on the UK staying within the Customs Union, a step which the Prime Minister would be very reluctant to concede. Labour is split on a Second Referendum and there is very little support for another referendum among Conservatives, and therefore it is unlikely that there would be a parliamentary majority for it taking place. Even if the Prime Minister agreed to a Second Referendum, therefore, it is hard to see how one could be made to take place.
Where does this leave us? The answer is almost certainly not with a majority in the House of Commons for the Prime Minister’s deal before the crucial Heads of State meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, 10th April 2019. While it is just possible that there will not be unanimity among the 27 EU Heads of State on granting the UK a further extension, leading to the UK leaving on WTO terms, it seems much more probable that an offer will be forthcoming, although probably not one which lasts only until 30th June 2019, as the Prime Minister has requested.
It seems much more likely that the Heads of State will follow Donald Tusk’s recommendation and go for a much longer extension, albeit with the option for this to be curtailed if the Withdrawal Agreement eventually goes through.
An extension may put off the short-term disruption which a departure by the UK from the EU this week on WTO terms might bring, but it does not solve the Brexit problem? It leaves the House of Commons still with no clear majority for almost anything. Even if one of the many proposals which have been put forward scrapes through, this is a very different matter from having the sort of wide-ranging agreement on which a stable future can be built. Although a cross-party consensus might be very much in the interests of the country, it is very hard to see now this being achieved.
Probably what will happen is that, with an extension for a year or so agreed this week, there will be a lull during the summer while the EU Commission changes and there are elections to the European Parliament. In the UK, we will very probably have a new leader of the Conservative Party elected and maybe this will provide us with an opportunity to review where we are on Brexit, to see if we can find an accommodation with our European neighbours with which we and they can all live reasonably happily.
We have had almost three years of non-stop Brexit news. Unfortunately, this may not come to an end soon.