For years, political parties in Scotland have operated as convenient offshoots of their larger UK masters. Despite possessing a powerful and evermore independent legislature, Scottish parties have remained beholden to their organisational masters in London, straining to be different but forever tethered to their increasingly peripheral Westminster brethren. After 12 years, the SNP took brutally effective advantage of this situation, winning a majority on the back of a campaign that positioned them as the only truly Scottish party.
Murdo Fraser MSP, the overwhelming favourite to be the next leader of the Scottish Tories, is attempting to change all that, claiming:
"If I am elected as leader of the party, I will turn it into a new and stronger party for Scotland. A new party. A winning party with new supporters from all walks of life. A new belief in devolution. A new approach to policy-making. A new name. But, most importantly, a new positive message about the benefits of staying in and strengthening our United Kingdom. A new party. A new unionism. A new dawn."
Already, there have been rumblings of support from Tories in Westminster, and the general belief is that Mr Fraser's democratic mandate (should he win) will allow him to manage the party as he sees fit.
Fears that the move will encourage independence are misplaced. The centre right is stalwartly pro-unionist and will resist any attempt to destroy the constitutional status quo. However, the move could do more to advance the march of federalism than any other event since devolution, even when the recent electoral successes of the SNP are taken into account.
Commentators have rushed to equate the move to the arrangement in Germany where the Bavarian CSU operates as an ally of the CDU in the rest of Germany. This argument has its merits, and is useful in quelling the fears of those who doubt the practical application of a split, but may prove inaccurate. Germany has 16 states, meaning the CDU contests and represents the majority of Germany. Without Scotland, the remaining Conservative Party will contest only England and Wales.
Although Wales is not yet politically unique enough to demand a break away party, the Scottish Tory split could lead to demands for a dedicated English organisation and, in the light of the unresolved West Lothian question and the Scottish Parliament's increasing power, confidence and independence, the calls for an English Parliament will grow.
This sequence of events depends on the success of the new party. If the new Scottish Tories manage to reinvent themselves, regain the trust of the electorate and create a united centre-right party to challenge the diverse and dominant left in the country, Labour and the Liberal Democrats may feel inclined, even obligated, to follow their lead and create separate entities to competitively contest elections. With this, federalism becomes the inevitable outcome.
To suggest that the rebranding and reforming of a party could lead to a historic change in the UK itself is an ambitious suggestion and one that relies on a fair degree of speculation. However, it will undoubtedly put the Conservatives (or whatever they become) on an equal footing with the SNP as a dedicated party for Scotland and demonstrates the ever-diverging political trends between Scotland the rest of the UK.