Polling Guru Predicts Next EU Referendum Date – And It's Before 2040

Did you think Brexit was over? Think again.
Political scientist Sir John Curtice has predicted that the UK will have another EU referendum by 2040.
Political scientist Sir John Curtice has predicted that the UK will have another EU referendum by 2040.
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Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has suggested we could have another referendum on joining the EU before 2040.

Curtice spoke to UK in a Changing Europe think tank on Wednesday evening and said: “I think the 2016 referendum is going to be as unsuccessful as the 1975 one.”

He added that the timescale “depends very much on uncertain politics”.

He said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens before 2040.”

The polling expert continued: “If you look so far at what has happened to attitudes and if you look at the age profile of attitudes towards Brexit, you can see why...”

Data shows the likelihood of a voter supporting Leave in 2016 increased with age.

Seventy-three percent of people aged between 18 and 24 voted to Remain in the EU, compared to just 40% of those over 65, according to data gathering website Statista.

He continued: “It’s a lot will also happen in terms of how does our relationship with the EU evolve, to what extent does the next Labour government soften it, or not.

“One of the things to realise is that the Labour Party is going to get elected by an election which is three-quarters anti-Brexit.”

Curtice has previously predicted that Keir Starmer’s party has a 99% chance of getting into No.10 at the next general election.

He continued: “One of the great ironies of the whole situation of where we are at, is that the party that has tried the hardest to change the Brexit profile of its support has succeeded the least.

Labour’s vote is almost as anti-Brexit as it was back in 2019.

“I think it’s not unlikely that the next Labour government is going to hit political trouble fairly early on because I think it’s a terrible, terrible legacy that they’re going to inherit.

“Then they have to think about ways to keep their voters on board - a lot of voters would be hoping that a Labour government would do something about the EU, which is perhaps rather more than what the Labour party is currently saying it wants to do with the EU.”

Starmer, a former Remain campaigner, has repeatedly said there is no case for trying to rejoin the EU amid Tory attempts to paint him as a leader who “wants to rejoin the EU in all but name”.


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