The reproduction number, or R rate, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is now at 1.2, according to official figures.
It comes despite recent data suggesting infections have decreased in every region of England for the first time during the second wave of the virus.
The Government Science Office said on Friday the latest estimate suggests R is between 1.2 and 1.3.
It represents a narrowing of the range of last week’s estimate, which was that R was between 1.0 and 1.4.
R measures the number of people, on average, that each sick person will infect.
If R is greater than 1, the epidemic is generally seen to be growing; if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.
Regional R numbers across England, as estimated by the government science office
East of England 1.0 - 1.3 (1.1 - 1.3)
London 0.9 - 1.2 (1.1 - 1.4)
Midlands 1.2 - 1.4 (1.1 - 1.4)
North East and Yorkshire 1.1 - 1.3 (1.1 - 1.4)
North West 1.2 - 1.5 (1.0 - 1.4)
South East 1.0 - 1.2 (1.1 - 1.4)
South West 1.2 - 1.5 (1.1 -1.5)
In Scotland the latest figures estimate the R rate is between 0.9 and 1.3.
In Wales the R rate is estimated to be between 1.0 and 1.3.
And in Northern Ireland it is estimated to be above 1.
The estimate represents the situation over the past few weeks rather than a snapshot of the situation on Friday, due to the time delay between initial infection, symptoms appearing, and the need for hospital care.
Boris Johnson will host a Downing Street press conference on Friday afternoon.
The prime minister has repeatedly warned England’s national lockdown rules could be tightened if they are not “properly observed”.