Six polls out over the last two days show Labour is closing in on the Conservatives, including one pointing to a dramatic 16-point swing in Jeremy Corbyn’s favour in Wales.
As Theresa May’s ‘Strong and Stable’ campaign hit the skids on Monday after she confirmed a dramatic U-turn on social care policy - a poll of Welsh voters gave Labour a ten point lead over the Tories.
Meanwhile, a Guardian/ICM survey also released on Monday, showed Labour making advances on the lead, up five percentage points, to 33%, against the Conservatives, who are down one point, to 47%.
The prime minister confirmed today that the cap - dropped from the Tory manifesto just days ago - will now be included as an option in a consultation on reforms to be launched after the June 8 General Election.
The climbdown led to May being mocked over her mantra, which has been renamed by some as ‘weak and wobbly’, and came after four polls over the weekend showed Labour was clawing back the margins.
The poll of Welsh voters showed Labour up nine points to 44% while the Tories dropped seven points, to 34%.
The ICM survey saw the Lib Dems drop a point, to 9% and Ukip drop two points, to 4%. The Greens, at 2%, were down one percentage point.
The survey results, the Guardian noted, show the Tories lead has slipped by six points. They still lead Labour by a commanding 14 points, however.
The Tories’ lead was as high as 20 percentage points in April, and crucially the four polls were conducted after the party’s manifesto launch on Thursday.
“The (latest ICM) figures were widely seen as evidence that the Tory social care plans had backfired,” the Guardian wrote on Monday.
ICM’s director, Martin Boon, said polling over the weekend had “indicated a resurgent, if still rather distant Labour party” and “reinforces the impression that Labour have won the short-term manifesto battle”.
Boon tempered his remarks by saying the General Election was still very much the Tories to lose.
“The Tories have had a flat out bad weekend, and the wind does feel as if it’s suddenly blowing in a different direction, but we’ve seen short-term effects like this before, and we’ve seen them dissipate. This is still a massive 14-point Tory lead, and still their election to throw away,” he told the Guardian.
While noting it had almost been an entire year since ICM saw Labour on 33% - “a surge that has been a long time coming” - Boon said the fight back does not correspond with a Tory collapse.
Electoral Calculus, Boon said, predicts an overall majority of 134, with the Tories only just shy of 400 seats. Labour had recovered to 177, largely due to improved polling in their own marginal seats, he said.