The most common question I get asked in my position as a currency strategist is; "why is the euro so strong?" Normally there are some rather more colourful turns of phrase included within that question, mainly as a result of the person losing money by betting against the single currency; a common occurrence in recent months.
2013 is looking increasingly like a year one can split into three very distinct thirds. The first third took us up to May, encompassing the Cypriot crisis and the inconclusive Italian election, sending risk markets into tail-spins and yields lower, and finishing when Ben Bernanke first mentioned the possibility that the Fed may 'taper' or reduce its bond-buying quantitative easing program.
The truth is that politics will only become a more wearisome pursuit. Left or right, green or orange the challenge will remain the same; humans are simply evolving beyond the reach of modern politics. The world has shrunk exponentially over the last decade and technology has made possible things that would have once appeared witchcraft.
Regarding Janice Atkinson's comment about Godfrey Bloom's work in the European Parliament, I would like to politely let Huffpost readers that Ukip MEPs don't do that much work here. They do not take part in the legislative process, which involves hundreds of hours of meetings, amendment drafting and consultation with affected industries.
I was delighted to read last week's news that from 2016, Winston Churchill will be the new face of the fiver (five pound note, about $7.50, if you're reading this in the US). Now, my reaction isn't surprising, given that I wrote a book about Sir Winston. But it goes far beyond my appreciation for the man who led Britain through her darkest hour and into her finest.
Why is it that I always seem to have to write these pieces just before some binary event or other, usually of Eurozone origin, meaning that by Tuesday (in this case), I could look extremely foolish?! Oh well here goes: my feeling is that the Cypriot crisis will fade from memory over the next few weeks and won't lead to wider Eurozone contagion. There - I've said it.
Brussels have decided the unravelling of the Euro and the wider European Project is unthinkable; in order to save the post-World War II consensus, principles and agreements are now void. The euro must be saved at all costs. Merkel has resigned to accepting the end will justify the means; a banking and political union must occur, regardless of the path of misery that awaits the periphery.
Yesterday a man decided that the pound's value against the euro and the dollar was 'just about right'. As a result, the pound stopped weakening against the euro and the dollar, as it has been doing so for several months. I was disappointed. I get paid in euros so I benefit from the pound being weak.
The public excitement around the England team will take something really special in the difficult conditions of Brazil to restore it to anything like its previous scale. Still, if we finish the year having beaten Scotland at Wembley, plenty will be happy enough. Maybe actually the FA's 150th anniversary fixture list is inspired after all, by the management of low expectations?