Continuing our fanatical speculation on who might be on the up - or on the way out - in the looming Cabinet reshuffle, here's a profile of four young Tory bucks who never fail to grab the headlines... I give you Grant Shapps, Nick Herbert, Ed Vaizey and Mark Harper.
Grant Shapps
You'll see this guy on the TV a lot, defending all areas of government policy, not just his housing brief. A robust and often combative performer in the media, Shapps is tipped to become the new chairman of the Conservative party, replacing Sayeeda Warsi.
He's popular on Twitter and is thought to be one of the first MPs to embrace the social network. There's been a bit of light-hearted banter between Shapps and Lord Prescott in the past few days, after Shapps claimed he "followed and unfollowed" thousands of people every week. Some think he might have used a robot to "buy" fake followers, but this is hardly the stuff that wins or loses elections, is it?
He's a grammar school boy, which helps a lot presentationally at a time when "arrogant posh boys" claims by Nadine Dorries seem to have a lot of resonance.
The one criticism I'd have of Shapps is over whether he's actually been a good housing minister. Having pledged to kickstart a housing revolution in Britain, that simply hasn't materialised. In fairness much of the first couple of years was spent trying to change the planning laws in England and Wales, amid widespread opposition from not-in-my-back-yard types.
Shapps managed to find the right balance earlier this year, more or less pleasing everybody when he announced the National Planning Policy Framework. With rumours that an economic Plan B will involve billions spent on a major housebuilding programme, it could well be that another MP gets to reap the rewards of Shapps' labour as he takes on the fight for re-election, online and elsewhere.
Nick Herbert
The first openly gay Tory to stand for Parliament, Herbert had the Justice brief in opposition and it's thought was only overlooked for Cabinet in 2010 because of the requirement to have a quota of Lib Dems. Currently straddling two departments as both policing minister in the Home Office and a junior justice minister, the retirement of Ken Clarke would make Herbert a prime candidate for Justice Secretary.
Herbert is one of the more impressive media performers, able to wriggle around statistics to construct his version of events in a way that confounds journalists and the opposition. It's clear that police numbers have been cut, but Herbert has been skilful in painting a picture of paper-shufflers being shown the door, not front-line officers. Labour have struggled to call him out on this.
Some things haven't gone so well. The new Police and Crime Commissioners, which were launched largely by Herbert, have failed so far to capture the public imagination. The Tory candidates who've been selected are largely unknowns, some say Number 10 has been disappointed with the calibre of those standing. Rank-and-file officers are fearful of what the new posts will bring to operational independence.
But Herbert is very well thought-of in Number 10 and his attacks on the Church of England for its stance on gay marriage earlier this year weren't slapped down in the slightest.
SEE ALSO:
- Blogpost - why Cameron needs to refresh his team as the coalition continues to flounder
- ResHUFFLe blog - the latest rumours and speculation
- Traffic jam at the top - the Tory Big Hitters
- Some scenarios for David Cameron as he considers the back-end of this Parliament
Ed Vaizey
There's something of a "Just William" air to the culture minister Ed Vaizey, who likes a crafty fag out on the Commons terrace as if it were the bike sheds, and isn't worried about upsetting Lib Dems in cabinet. Peter Hain told us that Vaizey wanted to "screw over the Lib Dems" during the coalition negotiations, for example. There was no denial. Although he might be hopeful of replacing Jeremy Hunt at the DCMS, Vaizey's biggest problem might be the department itself is scrapped. Talk of abolishing DCMS has reverberated around Whitehall for months, with bits of it hived off into Education and BIS after the Olympics.
At the moment Ed Vaizey has an interesting portfolio, tasked with improving broadband speeds as well as the politically sensitive job of sustaining the libraries network in austerity. Labour think he's making a terrible job of the latter, but if that were true, wouldn't it be on the front pages of all the newspapers?
Mark Harper
Given most of his party has been opposed to AV and Lords reform, Mark Harper has worn the onerous task of being a Tory minister serving under Nick Clegg lightly, striking almost a pitch-perfect tone on constitutional reform despite barracking from the back-benches. There is always a sense that Harper has dutifully carried out the spirit of the coalition agreement, never really revealing what his personal views are.
The reality is that with the AV referendum a distant memory and the battle to get Lords reform through Parliament largely now down to Cameron, Clegg and the whips, Harper's work as constitutional reform minister is sort-of done.
There has been talk that he'll now be moved into a more front-line department, not as a Cabinet minister but serving underneath one. A move to the Department of Health is touted to shore up Andrew Lansley, equally possible is a move to the MOD to oversee the possible renewal of Trident, something Harper is notoriously supportive of.