Labour On Course For 256-Seat Majority As Tory Nightmare Comes True

Latest poll confirms Rishi Sunak is heading for the Downing Street exit.
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is set to become prime minister next month.
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is set to become prime minister next month.
Geoff Caddick via Getty Images

Labour is on course for a mammoth 256-seat majority, according to a major new opinion poll.

The Ipsos survey of the voting intentions of nearly 20,000 people shows Keir Starmer’s party is set to win a staggering 453 seats, compared to just 115 for the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems would return 38 MPs, with the SNP on 15, Plaid Cymru on four and both the Greens and Reform UK on three.

The findings are further confirmation that Starmer is on course to become prime minister on July 5.

Worryingly for the Tories, the result could be even worse for them, with 117 seats deemed to be too close to call.

In those, the Conservatives are currently in second place in 50 of them, with Labour second in 43.

That means a really bad night for Rishi Sunak could see his party left with fewer than 100 MPs, handing Starmer an even bigger Commons majority.

The poll was carried out using the so-called “MRP” method - which takes account of voters’ social backgrounds and drills down into individual constituencies - and is seen as the most accurate forecast of the eventual result.

The poll appears to confirm the Tories’ worst nightmare that Labour are on course for a “super-majority”.

The party has used the prospect of a thumping defeat to try to persuade voters not to hand Starmer a “blank cheque” in government.

However, it appears those pleas have fallen on deaf ears as voters prepare to bring down the curtain on 14 years of Conservative rule.


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