UK Predicts Russia Won't Deploy This 1 Tactic In The Ukraine War Ahead Of Its Presidential Election

The Kremlin will look to stay away from "unpopular policy moves".
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Contributor via Getty Images

Russia will not announce any further waves of mobilisation this side of the presidential election, according to UK intelligence.

The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has claimed in its most recent update on X (formerly Twitter) that the Kremlin are already laying the groundwork for next year’s election, set to take place on March 17, 2024.

The UK intelligence claimed: “In the build-up to the election, the Kremlin will almost certainly seek to minimise unpopular policy moves.

“It is therefore highly likely that any further mobilisation waves will be implemented before the March 2024 presidential election.”

Moscow announced its plan to partially mobilise 300,000 reservists in September 2021 to supplement its depleted armed forces fighting in the Ukraine war.

It was a deeply unpopular policy which prompted protests around the country and calls for Russian president Vladimir Putin to be sent “to the trenches” instead.

While the demonstrations were rapidly squashed, there’s speculation that the Ukraine war may have slightly weakened Putin’s grip over the country ever since Kyiv’s air strikes started to hit Russian land.

Then there was the failed armed rebellion from the late Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Although the fighters claimed they wanted to overthrow the Russian defence ministry rather than Putin, it was the largest threat to the president’s rule since he came into power back more than 20 years ago.

Prigozhin died exactly two months after his rebellion in a mysterious helicopter crash.

Although Putin is expected to run again, he has not publicly announced it yet.

The MoD noted there is speculation his election campaign will “begin informally in November 2023”.

It also explained that elections are still a key part of political life in Russia.

The Kremlin has also made it clear that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on schedule despite the war in Ukraine, to comply with “all the requirements of democracy”, the presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on Monday.

As the UK intelligence officers claimed: “While elections in Russia are subject to interference and control by the Kremlin, they remain a core tool of political legitimisation.”

Putin has suppressed all noteworthy political opposition since getting into power. His most prominent political opponent, Alexei Navalny, is still imprisoned.

The MoD also speculated what Putin’s campaign may look like, saying: “It is almost certain that Putin’s election campaign will focus on the theme of Russia as a separate civilisation in need of defence from external enemies – a narrative frequently used to justify the state’s actions and Putin’s consolidation of power.”

Putin has often made the baseless claim that it was the West who pushed him towards his so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Interestingly, Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia’s Chechnya region, said over the weekend that the presidential election should be postponed, or limited to just one candidate – Putin – because of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Kadyrov, a Putin ally, said: “There’s no one else who could defend our country today.”

If Putin wins another election, he will stay in the Kremlin until 2030.


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