Boris Johnson’s toe-curling appearance during his partygate hearing may be over, but we’ve got a while to go yet until this whole chapter is closed.
He was hauled before the parliament’s privileges committee on Wednesday, more than a year after reports first emerged that Downing Street had broken lockdown rules by holding social gatherings behind closed doors.
The then-PM claimed no rules were broken in the so-called work meetings in the Commons, but he was later fined by the Metropolitan Police after the events were found to breach lockdown measures.
This week, he robustly denied that he had deliberately misled parliament over his partygate claims in a rather uncomfortable three and a half hour grilling from his fellow MPs, swearing “hand on heart” that he did not lie to his colleagues.
Still, the former prime minister’s future is on the line, depending on what conclusion the committee comes to over his behaviour.
What you need to know about the committee
This investigation is just within parliament and conducted by MPs, because only those sitting in parliament can decide about issues of parliamentary privilege.
Parliamentary privilege is part of the special protections offered to those in the House of Commons, including freedom of speech.
The privileges committee is made up of seven MPs, with four Tories, two Labour members and one SNP MP, to reflect the current balance of seats in the Commons.
The cross-party group of MPs have to decide if the Commons was misled, and – if so – whether that was a contempt of parliament. That means parliament’s ability to function was hindered.
If they decide that was the case, how serious was the act of contempt?
The committee is also looking at whether any potentially misleading statements from Johnson were “inadvertent, reckless or intentional” – and may look into how quickly and comprehensively such claims were “corrected”.
It will also recommend to the Commons what kind of punishment Johnson should face (if any) once they decide whether or not he misled parliament.
What could the committee decide?
1. Johnson is found not to have misled parliament
In this case, the Tory MP would not be sanctioned at all.
He has repeatedly claimed that he did not lie to the Commons, because he believed when he made those statements that the rules had been followed.
However, this isn’t particularly likely as an outcome because the ex-PM has already admitted some of his statements were misleading to MPs.
The committee will probably then judge whether Johnson corrected his statement quickly enough.
This means they’ll be looking at whether he was in contempt.
But the committee members have already said they are looking at evidence that it “would have been obvious” to Johnson Covid guidance was being broken during the gatherings.
2. Johnson did mislead parliament and is suspended for 10 days
A suspension of 10 sitting days (14 days including weekends) or more is also possible.
It would mean the committee thought he misled the Commons, and therefore disrupted its ability to function, constituting a “contempt” of parliament.
They would then decide that he deserved this severe punishment, recommend it to parliament, which MPs would have to vote on.
The suspension would trigger a recall petition.
If 10% of eligible registered voters in Johnson’s constituency then signed the petition his seat would then be declared vacant.
A by-election to fill his seat would follow.
3. Johnson did mislead parliament and is expelled
The committee could also recommend a complete expulsion for Johnson, meaning the local electorate would not have a say on whether he got to keep his seat if MPs all voted to remove him from parliament.
However, this is rare and would probably be controversial considering how he still supported by some Tory backbenchers.
4. Johnson did mislead parliament, but faces a lighter punishment
The Tory MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip could be found in contempt of parliament, but the committee might suggest a different sanction.
He may have to make a written apology, apologise in person to his parliamentary peers, or receive a shorter suspension which doesn’t trigger a recall petition.
When will we know what the committee decide?
The investigation started after the Metropolitan Police concluded its investigation into Downing Street alleged parties and after the Sue Gray report was fully published.
That means it did not begin until June 29, 2022.
It’s not yet clear exactly when it will conclude its investigation – although it’s expected after Easter – and present its recommendations to the Commons.
But once it does, there will be a vote among MPs to ratify or disagree with its conclusions and sanctions.
Current PM Rishi Sunak has already indicated it will be a “free vote”, meaning Conservative MPs can vote any way they lon the matter.