If you hadn’t already noticed (and who could blame you for trying to avoid it?), Westminster has been a flurry of activity in recent weeks as the UK is pushed further and further towards a Brexit cliff-edge.
With MPs on both sides of the divide working furiously to get what they want out of our EU exit, there have been countless motions, amendments, votes and speeches in parliament.
So no judgement here if you’re struggling to keep up (or if you’ve actively given up trying to). But something pretty big happened in the Commons on Wednesday night that is worth paying attention to.
In a ridiculously close ballot, MPs voted to force Theresa May to effectively rule out a no-deal Brexit and extend Article 50 beyond April 12. (Yeah, it was a biggie.)
As with everything that happens in SW1 nowadays, it has been dubbed a “historic” move by politicos. But what does the vote really mean for Brexit – and what happens now?
What Was The Vote?
In a knife-edge result, MPs voted 313 to 312 to back an emergency bill put forward by Labour’s Yvette Cooper calling on the prime minister to ask the European Union for an extension to Article 50 – effectively ruling out a no-deal Brexit.
But the late night ballot was just the climax in drama-fuelled evening in parliament. The vote on Cooper’s bill almost didn’t happen, with a move by Tory MP Oliver Letwin to seize control of the Commons to allow time for it passing by a majority of just one (312 to 311).
It came just hours after an attempt by Labour MP Hilary Benn to ensure a third round of indicative votes on Brexit options was blocked following a tied vote – the first in the Commons in more than 25 years. (Commons speaker John Bercow – who was given the deciding vote – sided with the no lobby, and therefore the ‘status quo’, in line with parliamentary precedent).
What Does The Bill Mean?
Essentially, the bill could see a no-deal Brexit taken off-the-table completely. With it, MPs give May a mandate to ask the European Union for an extension to Brexit beyond April 12 – the current deadline for Article 50.
But – crucially – the legislation would give parliament the power to decide the length of the delay the prime minister would ask for. While May would have responsibility for setting out how long any extension should be, MPs would be able to amend the exit date.
However, it’s important to remember it’s the EU which holds the power when it comes to any Brexit delay. The prime minister can only request an extension – it’s up to the EU27 whether they grant it.
Under Cooper’s bill, if the European Union agrees to a Brexit delay – but on a different timescale to the one suggested by the UK – May would be forced to return to the Commons for another vote.
How Have Brexiteers Reacted?
As you may have expected, Brexiteers looking for the UK to leave the EU as soon as possible – with or without the deal – are not too happy, with many complaining about how quickly the bill was pushed through the Commons. (It can sometimes take months for backbench bills to be passed).
Tory Brexiteer Mark Francois called it a “constitutional outrage”, telling the BBC: “It’s difficult to argue that you’ve had an extremely considered debate when you’ve rammed the bill through the House of Commons in barely four hours.”
Sir Bill Cash added: “This is something profoundly undemocratic”.
But Cooper defended the bill, calling on MPs to work together to overcome divisions on Brexit and “build consensus”.
“Three years on from the referendum the biggest problem for all of us is that so little has been done to heal the national Brexit divide or to bring people together and this is major constitutional change and if there isn’t that effort made to bring people together, then to be honest whatever we conclude either today, tomorrow, next week, it won’t last because there won’t have been that work to build the consensus,” she said.
What Happens Now?
First things first, the bill needs to be considered by the House of Lords, which must approve it before it becomes law. (Expect to see bonkers Lords customs all over your Twitter feed as political journalists turn their attention to the ‘other place’ for once in a very rare blue moon.)
But as explained before, the big action will come if the PM is forced to ask the EU for an extension, with EU leaders holding all the power. With parliament now effectively in control of the Brexit delay, the UK could be forced to take part in EU elections – something May has repeatedly said she wants to avoid.
On Wednesday night, the government said Cooper’s bill would place a “severe constraint” on its ability to negotiate an extension to the Brexit deadline before April 12.
Don’t forget though – the EU27 could reject the PMs request for a delay altogether. If they do, the UK will undoubtedly be one step closer to a no-deal Brexit.