Coalition Expected To Crumble Before 2015, Say Majority Of Voters

'One In Six Think Coalition Will Crumble By 2015'

Only one in six voters believe the coalition government will survive until the 2015 general election, a poll published on Sunday revealed.

The ICM survey for the Guardian suggests last week's falling out between the Tories and Lib Dems over Lords reform and the boundary review has seriously dented the public's confidence in their ability to work together.

Of those asked only 16% thought the government would make it to 2015, compared to the 33% who thought it would when asked just two weeks ago.

The poll was conducted on 8 and 9 August, after the so-called "super Saturday" that saw Britain win three gold medals in the Olympic stadium within 47 minutes.

But the figures from the ICM poll sugest that the feel-good factor was not enough to stop the public noting the growing tension between the coalition partners.

In a sign that relations between the two parties are unlikely to heal quickly, Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander is expected to launch an attack on the Tories for failing to recognise the contribution environmental measures could make to economic growth.

At the Lib Dem autumn conference in Brighton he will also lay into "irresponsible" Conservative-led efforts to water down employment rights "with no clear evidence of effectiveness".

Alexander's criticisms are particularly noteworthy as he works closely with chancellor George Osborne in the Treasury and is seen as having good relations with the Conservatives.

He is also a member of the influential cross-party "Quad" that makes final coalition decisions along with David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Osborne.

There is likely to be increased calls from Lib Dem activists at their conference for the party to begin differentiating itself from the Tories, after backbench Conservative MPs moved to block the reform of the House of Lords.

Similarly Clegg's decision to tell his MPs to vote down the boundary review, which would cut the number of MPs from 650 to 600, has angered many Conservatives.

As YouGov president Peter Kellner notes today the Tories will find it much harder to form a majority government after the next election with the current electoral map.

"On the present boundaries, Labour would need a lead in the popular vote of just one percentage point to win an overall majority. But under the proposed boundaries, they would need a three-point lead," he said.

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