Boris Johnson On Course To Lose His Seat At The Next Election, New Poll Reveals

The former PM is one of a number of high-profile Tories facing defeat in 2024.
Boris Johnson may be looking for alternative employment after the next election.
Boris Johnson may be looking for alternative employment after the next election.
Peter Byrne via PA Wire/PA Images

Boris Johnson is on course to lose his seat at the next election, according to a major new poll.

The former prime minister is one of a number of high-profile Tories - including several cabinet ministers - who face being ejected by the electorate in 2024.

Johnson has insisted he will stand again in his Uxbridge seat, which he held with a majority of 7,210 at the last election three years ago.

But a new poll of more than 10,000 people for the Best for Britain campaign group suggests he will be turfed out next time around as Labour sweeps to victory.

The poll, carried out by Focaldata, suggests Keir Starmer is heading for Downing Street with a majority of around 60 seats.

That would be a dramatic turnaround from the last election, which Johnson won with a landslide 80-seat majority.

As well as the former PM, other Tories tipped to lose their seats include defence secretary Ben Wallace, work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, transport secretary Mark Harper, Scottish secretary Alister Jack and Welsh secretary David TC Davies.

However, analysis of the poll suggests Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is a precarious one, with many undecided voters likely to swing behind Rishi Sunak when the election takes place.

In a report accompanying their polling, Best for Britain said: “It appears that since spring 2022, Conservative-leaning voters have been becoming wavering voters rather than switching to Labour.

“To fully understand and predict the result of the next UK general election, it is vital to understand who these wavering voters are and how they might cast their votes.

“Our polls confirm that wavering voters are overwhelmingly intending to vote, and our analysis shows they are demographically more similar to Conservative voters in England than Labour voters.

When we take into account how wavering voters are likely to actually vote, the electoral map starts to look like a closer battle for the two main parties than the headline poll results suggest.”


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