Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine is “faltering” just three weeks after the invasion, according to the UK’s ministry of defence.
On Friday morning, the government department tweeted out its daily update: “Russian forces have made minimal progress this week.
“Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities.
“The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled and subject to heavy Russian shelling.”
The attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas have intensified over the last few days. It’s now estimated that around 90% of the buildings in Mariupol have been destroyed or damaged by the Russian shelling.
Hundreds were left trapped in a bomb shelter in a theatre on Wednesday, although Russian officials have repeatedly denied that this attack had anything to do with them.
The Kremlin continues to reject any allegations that it has targeted civilians in its bid to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.
As of Friday, the Russians had started to attack the western city of Lviv.
The MoD added: “The UN now states that the number of refugees fleeing the conflict in Ukraine has already surpassed 3.2 million. This number will continue to rise as a result of ongoing Russian aggression.”
This assessment followed a similar tweet published on Thursday night, where the MoD announced: “Logistical problems continue to beset Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine.
“Reluctance to manoeuvre cross-country, lack of control of the air and limiting bridging capability are preventing Russia from effectively resupplying their forward troops with even basic essentials such as food and fuel.
“Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large numbers of troops to defend their own supply lines.
“This is severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential.”
Other experts have also blamed poor preparation and difficult logistics for the stalled invasion.
James Rand of the defence intelligence agency told i News: “What you’ve now got is forces that have a lot of equipment [but] we’re not sure how well maintained that equipment actually is.”
Research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute, Ed Arnold, also told the news outlet that the Russian forces had not planned enough beforehand, and may have been relying on Cold War tactics despite now having a much smaller military force.
He said: “[It seems] troops were not actually told how large scale the operation was going to be until maybe a day before the operation.”
Arnold also speculated that Russian forces had aimed to get to Kyiv quickly to remove the government, but then realised they had no backup plan when the Ukrainian resistance got in their way.
Rand also warned that soldiers are abandoning their vehicles and allegedly having rations which are seven years out of date – and “that will smash morale”.
The MoD’s updates have been gradually suggesting that Putin’s invasion plan starting to fail over the weeks.
Earlier this week, it claimed they were “struggling to overcome the challenges posed by Ukraine’s terrain”, and were too limited to Ukraine’s road network and on Thursday morning it said that the forces were “stalling on all fronts”.
Putin, however, has claimed the operation was going ahead ”successfully” and “in strict accordance with pre-approved plans”.
What might happen next?
There is a chance Russian forces could still turn it around. They have attacked several key cities in Ukraine, and are spreading out across the country.
There is also the question of how much more aggression the Ukrainian can take. Heartbreaking accounts from people trying to leave Mariupol under shelling have been going viral on Twitter.
With 3.2 million refugees fleeing Ukraine, the refugee crisis is still escalating.
Despite several intense rounds, the peace negotiations between the two countries do not seem to be going anywhere.
Ukraine has agreed that it is unlikely to be accepted as a Nato member by the organisation, despite its best attempts, in a move which should have pleased Putin.
However, Russia now seems more determined than ever to make the two countries unite under Putin’s influence – while the Ukrainian are still refusing to give up their sovereignty.