Scottish Independence Polls Give 'No' Campaign Slender Lead

Scottish Independence Polls Give 'No' Slender Lead
Supporters at a Yes Rally in George Square ahead of voting in the Scottish Referendum on September18th.
Supporters at a Yes Rally in George Square ahead of voting in the Scottish Referendum on September18th.
Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

Polls suggest the Scottish referendum battle remains too close to call as both sides gear up for a frantic last day of campaigning. Surveys by Opinium for The Daily Telegraph and ICM for The Scotsman both gave No a slender lead of 52% to 48%. But the four-point advantage is close to the margin of error for such research - raising the prospect of a nailbiting final push in which every ballot could make the difference.

The pro-independence campaign said the gap in the ICM research had narrowed by six points over the past month. Yes Scotland Chief Executive Blair Jenkins said: "This poll - like all the recent polls - shows that we are in touching distance of success on Thursday. The referendum is on a knife edge, and this will spur on everybody who wants and is working hard for a Yes to redouble their efforts."

The Opinium online survey - which quizzed more than 1,000 Scots between September 12 and 15 - found 38% thought resentment of Westminster would be the cause if Yes did win. The headline figures in both polls exclude undecideds.

A Survation poll for the Scottish Daily Mail also put No on 52% - down one point since last Thursday - with Yes up one point on 48%. The online survey of 1,000 people was carried out between September 12 and 16. Better Together Campaign Director Blair McDougall said: "This vote will go right down to the wire. There is no room for a protest vote. If we vote to leave the UK there would be no going back, no matter what it costs us in terms of bigger cuts, higher prices and fewer jobs.

"The last week has exposed how much of a risk going it alone would be for Scotland. Jobs would move to England, funding for pensions would be cut and our NHS would be at risk. These are risks we just don't need to take. We can have faster, better, stronger change for Scotland within the UK. We can have more powers for Scotland without taking on all the risks of separation. If people want to avoid these risks then they have to vote No. It can't be left to someone else."


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