A New Generation of Decreasingly Reliable Muslim Governments is Not a Promising Partnership for the US

In his second term, Mr Obama is likely to confront a multi-front Middle East of problems, which could become defining for both the U.S. and the world peace. It will be a time of wise choices, tough decisions and necessary sacrifices.
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It was hard to imagine four years ago, that a candidate with a Muslim middle name and a past friendship with prominent Palestinians could win a presidential election, in probably the most democratic and pro-Israel country in the world.

It happened in 2008, when Barack Obama became a President of the United States of America and therefore proved that in a real democracy there are no barriers to religious freedom if people are preoccupied with democratic values and a wish for peace. It was clear from his campaign and from the very beginning of his first term that Mr Obama's plan was to restore the U.S. reputation as a credible mediator in the Middle East. He sincerely believed that he could regain Arab trust by taking a tougher stand on Israel and this was his bid for historic change.

Unfortunately, his advisers' clash over tactics, the excessive demands of both Israel and the Palestinians towards the U.S. because of its announced new role, and as a result, the lack of trust between the parties to the Israel - Palestine conflict has brought the world to a higher escalation of relations within the region.

In May 2009, Mr Obama surprised the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by saying that the building of Israeli settlements in the West Bank had to be discontinued in order for the parties to the conflict to move forward. His view on this struggle was different from how it was perceived in Mr Bush's era, which was widely viewed as the U.S. having overly patronised Israel and, as a result, damaged its reputation as a reliable conciliator in the eyes of the Muslim world. In contrast, Obama was trying to convey the thought that Israel would only win, if its biggest ally in the Middle East, the U.S., had friends in the Arab world.

In November 2009, Mr Netanyahu announced a ten month freeze on settlement construction in the West Bank. However, the result was growing Israeli discontent. Neither was progress noticeable in negotiations with Palestinian leaders. In fact, President Mahmoud Abbas avoided any talks, despite pressure from his own advisers. "I told him that you have to help the president to help you," recalls one of his advisers at the time. "He's the President of the most powerful country in the world. He doesn't need my help." - was Mr Abbas's response. Mr Netanyahu's sacrifice was left without any compromise from Palestinian officials.

Having become impatient about ineffective U.S. participation, Mr Abbas urged Arab states to submit a resolution to the U.N. Security Council condemning the building of Israeli settlements on occupied land and calling for a new freeze. In a phone call, Mr Obama warned Mr Abbas that Congress might abolish $450 million of U.S. aid to the Palestinians if he insisted further, but Abbas refused to back down. A few weeks later, Mr Obama used the U.S. veto on the Security Council for the first time in his presidency, in an effort to repeal the resolution. In the process he angered the Arab world he had sought to placate.

The next series of unforeseen events further worsened Mr Obama's position within the Arab world given the U.S. support for traditional Arab dictatorships within the region. The Arab Spring which unfolded over the winter of 2010/11 demonstrated, among other things, that the expediency of trading stability and oil interests for democratic values never ends well, as this kind of stability is never eternal in the face of popular resistance. With the Arab Spring having turned over more uncertain by mid-2012, anti-American protests, which resulted in the death of Americans - including the U.S. Ambassador to Libya, J. Christopher Stevens - and the Arab reaction to the video which satirized Prophet Muhammad were signs that the U.S. primacy in the region could no longer be taken for granted.

In his second term, Mr Obama is likely to confront a multi-front Middle East of problems, which could become defining for both the U.S. and the world peace. It will be a time of wise choices, tough decisions and necessary sacrifices. As Mr Netanyahu proposed during his official visit to the U.S. in 2011, any peace settlement with the Palestinians should be genuine, and "the only peace that would endure is the piece based on reality and unshakable facts." As a metaphor for Arab relations with the West, it can indeed be seen that history cannot be deceived by avoiding this. A new generation of decreasingly reliable Muslim governments is not a promising partnership, unless the U.S. is willing to once again plunge into the risky business of trading its moral values for dictators it can trust.