Tories Hope To Decapitate Ukip Snake As Nigel Farage's Battle For South Thanet Hots Up

Tories Hope To Decapitate Ukip Snake As Farage's Battle For South Thanet Hots Up
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Farage hopes to win in South Thanet in the 2015 general election
Mary Turner via Getty Images

The Conservatives believe they can decapitate the Ukip "snake" by stopping Nigel Farage in his bid for Parliament next May as prospective MP for South Thanet.

Ukip is hoping to secure a flock of MPs at the next general election, but doubts have been raised about the strength of Farage's electoral support in the seat after recent polling by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft found that he was five points behind the Conservative candidate.

"Wouldn't it be great if we won?" a Tory MP pondered excitedly to HuffPost UK, "It'd cut the head right off the snake!"

Farage's team bristle in response to such venomous talk, with a Ukip source remarking that it "sounds like the negative sort of campaign they want to run, while we are campaigning on positive issues".

However, Lord Ashcroft's polling, carried out last November, suggests the Tories are gaining momentum after a survey by Survation a year earlier found that Ukip was in second place (30%) to Labour (34%), with the Tories trailing twolo points behind (28%).

Questions have also been raised about how much time Farage, 50, has spent out in South Thanet, since been selected as Ukip's parliamentary candidate in August.

Conservative sources tell HuffPost UK that since being selected as Ukip's candidate for the Kent seat in August, Farage has only turned up in the constituency, which includes the towns of Ramsgate, Margate and Broadstairs, three times to campaign.

Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay, a Medway councillor, quipped: "I'm on the streets of Thanet in a week more than Nigel has been since August."

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Mackinlay on the campaign trail

Ukip scoffs at such accusations, with a spokesman telling HuffPost UK that Farage has been to the constituency "far more" than three times, adding: "It's just that they are not all press events, but private meetings with local people."

A source close to Farage goes further, saying that the Ukip leader is "practically living" in the constituency, campaigning in the Kent seat "whenever he does not have to be in the European parliament".

Farage is also facing a challenge from comedian Al Murray, who is pledging to stand there as his Pub Landlord character under the Free United Kingdom Party (FUKP) banner.

Labour has fielded Will Scobie as its candidate, the Greens have Ian Driver, and the Liberal Democrats have Russ Timpson. The Tories are relying on Mackinlay, who despite being a former leader of Ukip and founding member of the party, insists that he will not try to "out-Ukip Ukip".

Mackinlay, who joined the Tories in 2005, argues that his Ukip past is an asset in his campaign to fight Farage, styling himself as a "traditional Conservative" who can make disaffected Tories "feel happy to come back home".

However, polls suggest voters trust Ukip most on issues like Europe and immigration, while the Tories are most trusted to deal with the deficit and manage the economy well.

Mackinlay says that he has a "whole spectrum of messages" to sell on the doorstep, but admits unsurprisingly that his "primary message" is on the economy - the Tories' strong suit.

Pressed, he admits that immigration does feature on his leaflets. "It's an issue that people do mention, there's no point in ignoring it," he adds, before reverting back to the Tories' favourite topic. "We will out-do any other party on our record of the economy."

Ukip are feeling optimistic as they performed strongly in Kent in last year's European elections, topping the poll across the Thanet District Council area with 16,492 votes, more than double the votes cast for the second-placed Tories.

The fight has been played out on a larger scale on Kent County Council, which although the Tories control with 44 of the 84 seats, has an official Ukip opposition, who have 17 seats.

The Eurosceptic party is hoping South Thanet voters would flock to Farage after being represented by Conservative MP Laura Sandys, a leading europhile, who is stepping down.

Farage has an uphill struggle as Sandys won for the Tories with a majority of nearly 8,000 in 2010 over Labour, securing 22,043 votes, nearly half of those cast. By contrast, Ukip won just 2,529 votes, just over 5% of those cast.

Since 1983, when the South Thanet seat was first created, it has always been held by the party that has formed the government of the day. While he has no hope of occupying No 10, electoral success for Ukip could see him play a role in coalition negotiations in the event of a hung parliament. When Sandys secured the seat, she ousted Labour former minister Stephen Ladyman, who had held the seat since Tony Blair's 1997 landslide.

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Farage celebrates in Thanet after becoming the local Ukip candidate

Farage hopes to use victory in South Thanet, which has a reputation as an electoral bellwether, as a signal that Ukip has arrived as a credible force in Westminster politics.

However, the Tories remain hopeful as Farage has himself stood for South Thanet before in 2005, and failed, finishing fourth with just 2,079 votes.

Failure in South Thanet will be politically dangerous for Farage, as others are waiting in the wings like deputy leader Paul Nuttall, who told the New Statesman that he thought he "could" lead the party.

Farage's appearances have been known to be accompanied by a media whirlwind as cameras and press follow in his wake, like the Kevin Hull, a producer of Channel Four’s Benefits Street, who is filming a documentary about the Thanet campaign.

One of Farage's most public appearances in the constituency was when he starred on a Channel 4 show where he met Steph and Dom Parker, owners of a local guesthouse and stars of the reality show Gogglebox.

In what has been described as a "rip-roaring alcohol-fuelled watch", Farage drank champagne with the reality TV stars, spoke about his family, his career and lamented that he was the "poorest man in politics".

Such tactics have apparently raised eyebrows. "Nigel doesn't seem to be doing what I'd call "normal" campaigning on the streets," says Mackinlay.

"It is being recognised that on the street - people say 'Oh he's never here'. He expects to breeze in and use South Thanet as a bit of a ladder up the pole really."

Ukip dismiss such claims, with a spokesman telling HuffPost UK: "I guess that Mr Mackinlay should get out a little bit more, Nigel's lack of "obvious" support managed to get seven out of the eight Kent County Councillors in Thanet elected."

However, Ukip will undoubtedly need to ramp up their campaign efforts as May nears to ensure Farage wins South Thanet, as their opponents will be energised by the prospect of foiling the Ukip leader's sixth parliamentary bid.

"We've knocked on literally thousands and thousands of doors and there is not obvious support for Nigel down here," Mackinlay boasts.

A source close to Farage pours scorn on the Tory candidate's claims: "Mr Mackinlay must be campaigning in the wrong constituency then because the response we have had has been overwhelming."

"When we've been walking on the streets, the word is 'selfie-mania'!"

As the general election nears, Mackinlay and Farage have already faced off at public hustings with the other candidates.

However, the Ukip leader's opponents still accuse him of being "too busy" for the locals he is vying to represent, attacking him for not spending enough time in the area.

The polls suggest that the Tories are ahead in South Thanet, but the bookies are tipping Farage to win.

After his selection, the Ukip leader told his party faithful that he predicted opposition parties would now send their "heavy artillery" to scupper his hopes of securing the South Thanet seat.

Farage asked his members to help him form a "Thanet Army", adding: "We have got to get people to do their bit."

Clearly every Ukip foot-soldier will be needed to help their general win.

See more General Election 2015 coverage

10 Policies You Had Forgotten Ukip Had Made
Taxi drivers must wear uniforms(01 of10)
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For those who see a black cab with an illuminated sign saying 'TAXI' on it - and aren't sure whether it's a taxi - Ukip had you covered. When Andrew Neill put this to Farage on The Daily Politics in January, saying: "You favour a compulsory dress code for taxi drivers". Farage said: "Do we?" The policy didn't actually make it into the 16-page manifesto but was mooted by a "discussion group" that fed into Ukip policies, then policy chief David Campbell Bannerman told HuffPost UK. (credit:Anthony Devlin/PA Archive)
Ban the burkha! (Well, in some places)(02 of10)
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In the section about 'Restoring Britishness', the manifesto pledged to "tackle Islamic extremism" by banning the wearing of the burkha or veiled niqab in public buildings and "certain private" ones. "Ukip opposes multiculturalism and political correctness - aiming to create a single British culture embracing all religions and cultures," it said. (credit:Anthony Devlin/PA Archive)
Shield our children from Al Gore's 'propaganda' (03 of10)
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Eurosceptics and climate change sceptics appear to go hand in hand - Ukip say they wanted to abolish the Climate Change Act and ban Al Gore's Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth from our schools, calling it "global warming propaganda". It also pledged to stop funding the UN panel on climate change and fund the Met Office "according to forecast accuracy". But they did have a green side... (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Get us all to drive electric cars(04 of10)
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The manifesto said it would "incentivise and support" the use of electric road vehicles. (credit:John Walton/PA Archive)
A 'proper' Treason Act(05 of10)
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Yeah, that's right - a "proper" one. Suck it, traitors. The act would be to prosecute British citizens found guilty of attacks on "the British people or armed forces". Beyond that, there isn't much detail. (credit:Alastair Grant/PA Wire)
Boot camps for young offenders(06 of10)
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Young people consistently in trouble with the law were to be sent to "boot camp" to stop them "spiraling into a life crime". Ominously, that is all the manifesto has to say on the subject. It also pledged to double the number of prison places, presumably in case the camps didn't work. (credit:Jeff Moore/Jeff Moore)
Safeguard British measurements(07 of10)
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Farage wasn't Ukip leader at the time of the 2010 general election but we detect his fingerprints on this. His party pledged to "safeguard" imperial measurements like the pint and the mile from being "undermined" by Brussels. So, Farage won't have to order "half a litre of ale," (or worse, lager) any time soon. (credit:Steve Parsons/PA Wire)
Triple the size of the border staff(08 of10)
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The Border Agency needed to be tripled in size to around 30,000 employees, in order to enforce Ukip's proposed new requirement that every non-UK citizen's entry and exit to the country be recorded. (credit:Steve Parsons/PA Wire)
Return to grants for students(09 of10)
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University students are an unlikely target demographic for the eurosceptic party. Nonetheless, they said they would return to the old student grant system and scrap students loans which are leaving them in "heavy debt" If only those thousands of students who voted for the Lib Dems had known... (credit:Johnny Green/PA Wire)
'English-only' days at parliament(10 of10)
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Bloody Scots, coming down here, taking up their duly elected places in the House of Commons. On "English-only" days, the MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be required to go home and perform the devolved duties of the regional assemblies - whose existing members they would replace. (credit:Steve Parsons/PA Wire)