How Would Conservative MPs Get Rid Of David Cameron As Leader?

So, How Would Tory MPs Get Rid Of David Cameron?
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How would Tory MPs ditch the PM?
AP

With Ukip snapping at his heels, Tory MPs raging about gay marriage and Europe, not to mention a cohort of disgruntled "swivel-eyed" local activists - it would be an understatement to say that David Cameron is having a bit of trouble with his own party.

In a sign of the precarious position in which the prime minister appears to find himself, one senior Tory told the Guardian today that it was "worse than John Major" and that it "could be terminal" for his leadership.

But if Tory MPs actually did want to terminate Cameron, how would they go about it? Under Conservative Party rules a leadership election is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs call for a no confidence vote in the leader. They do this by sending letters to the chairman of the party's backbench 1922 committee - currently Graham Brady.

There are currently 305 Tory MPs in the Commons, so 46 of them would need to want to get rid of Cameron for a no confidence vote to be triggered.

Brady is understandably tight-lipped about how many letters he has locked away in his office (assuming that's where he keeps them). As pressure grows on the prime minister from his backbenchers and local activists, discovering the precise number of letter-writers is one of the most popular pastimes in Westminster.

Last year it was reported that at least 14 Tory MPs had called for Cameron to go, with one of them named as Patrick Mercer.

But 14 is not 46. And there are always likely to be a few MPs who want to ditch their leader - no matter how well they are doing. And even the usual suspects can be coy about revealing their intent. Nadine Dorries, no fan of the prime minister, told HuffPost UK she " couldn’t possibly say" if she had signed a letter when asked in January.

The fear for Cameron is that the alleged plotters could grow in number beyond the obvious. A source described as a "senior Tory" told the Daily Mail today that whatever the current number was, there were "between 18 and 23 letters" that could be sent in at the drop of a hat.

If the magic number of 46 was to be reached, Brady would have to call a no confidence vote. If Cameron won the support of a simple majority in that vote he would remain leader and no further vote could be called for 12 months.

If he were to lose such a vote he would have to resign. And not that he would want to, but he wouldn't be allowed to stand in the subsequent leadership election.

MPs would then put their names forward to be the new leader. Under the previous rules the party leader was chosen just by MPs. But WIlliam Hague changed this - giving the general party membership (swivel-eyed and non swivel-eyed) the final say.

If only one candidate submits their name then they win automatically. If two candidates put their names forward then the party members chose between them. If more than two MPs want to be leader then the parliamentary party at first whittles the contenders down to just two.

If there are three candidates in the first ballot, the two who receive the most votes take their case to the party at large.

If it is more than a three horse race, the candidate receiving the fewest votes withdraws and another ballot is held. This process is repeated until there are just two candidates left.

Tory Leadership Race
Boris Johnson(01 of07)
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Current position: Mayor of London, Candidate for Uxbridge and South RuislipRides: "Bumbling Oratory" Odds to win: 5/2 favouriteFor: Boris is rarer thing than a Sugarbush Draft Horse, he's a "popular Tory". An opinion poll last October outed him as the people's choice to replace Cameron. Part of the trio named by Cameron as his possible successors.Unfortunately, it's not up to the people...Against: Critics argue he is style over substance, and have real concerns his premiership would be characterised by gaffes and back-pedalling. (credit:PA/Composite)
Theresa May(02 of07)
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Current position: Home SecretaryRides: "Beyond The Borders"Odds to win: 4/1For: Politically, May is a shrewd and successful operator who has done a credible job as home secretary, a role that has tripped up many previous politicians. The first female chair of the Conservative Party. Also part of the trio named by Cameron as his possible successors.Against: A Tory minister recently described May as "100% charmless" and the only benefit that her appointment as leader would bring would be "net migration". She would be 63 by the time of the 2020 general election - the only woman, but also the oldest of the three frontrunners. (credit:PA/Composite)
George Osborne(03 of07)
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Current position: Chancellor Rides: "Red Box Makeover"Odds to win: 7/1For: Osborne has seen a turnaround in fortunes after stumbling at a few early budget hurdles. Last budget generally seen as a resounding success and management of the economy has arguably put Britain ahead of Europe in the recovery. Has had a personal makeover including his new close-cropped haircut dubbed 'The Osborne'. Also part of the trio named by Cameron as his possible successors.Against: His privileged background is well-known, and his membership of the Bullingdon Club - an Oxford dining society for the very rich, of which Cameron was also a member - particularly riles those who believe he does not have the common touch. He is considered a political heavyweight, but being a good chancellor does not necessarily translate to being a good party leader and prime minister, as recent history has shown
Sajid Javid(04 of07)
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Current position: Culture SecretaryRides: "Rising Star"Odds to win: 10/1For: Javid, the son of Pakistani immigrants, is the first of the Tory MPs elected in 2010 to become a cabinet minister.Against: Close to George Osborne, he may choose to give the Chancellor a clear path at the leadership.
Philip Hammond(05 of07)
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Current position: Defence SecretaryRides: "Stripped Down Defender"Odds to win: 10/1For: Erm...Against: Recently received a "slapping down" from Danny Alexander for publicly complaining about defence cuts.Also, he's possibly the most "beige" of all the prospective candidates. (credit:PA/Composite)
Liam Fox(06 of07)
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Current position:Rides: "Spend Wisely"Odds to win: 33/1For: Dr Fox has become the unofficial spokesman for those Tories disaffected with the current leadership with a number of public statements criticising their direction on austerity.Against: Is it really a good move to appoint someone who was forced to resign from his job as defence minister for allowing a close friend improper access to the highest level of government affairs?Additionaly, Fox recently said: "I think there is no chance of us having a leadership election in the Conservative Party before the election, I think that would be madness." (credit:PA/Composite)
Michael Gove(07 of07)
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Current position: Tory Chief WhipRides: "Baccalaureate Backtrack" Odds to win: 100/1For: Gove is highly regarded within the Tory party as charming, polite and capable.Against: He has taken a bruising both from the public and other Tories for some of his proposals in his former job as Secretary of State for Education. (credit:PA/Composite)