How Another Massive Brexit Week Could Play Out In Westminster

Chaos almost guaranteed.

Theresa May has just two weeks to find a solution to the Brexit impasse or Britain faces a choice between crashing out of the EU with no deal on April 12 or delaying withdrawal for months.

The prime minister has made clear she believes that her beleaguered withdrawal deal is the best way of ensuring the UK leaves in an “orderly” fashion.

But amid widespread and entrenched opposition in the Commons, May has not yet committed to bringing the withdrawal agreement back for a third vote, fearing defeat.

Meanwhile MPs are trying to take control of the process to see if they can unite around an alternative plan.

And the calls for May’s removal from office are growing louder and more urgent.

It is very difficult to predict what may happen next with Westminster in such a fevered state, but here’s what could be in store in another huge Brexit week: 

Monday

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Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Trade Secretary Liam Fox leave cabinet
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May chairs another crunch meeting of the cabinet in which ministers can expect a serious ticking off for briefing the Sunday papers about launching a coup against the PM.

The PM will hope she can somehow reimpose some discipline and unity on her top team but it seems unlikely given the unpalatable choices she faces.

She is also likely to outline her plan for next steps before addressing the Commons as debate begins on various Brexit amendments.

May seems likely to promise indicative votes on alternatives to her Brexit plan to see off a cross-party amendment led by Tory Sir Oliver Letwin, which would give MPs control of parliamentary business to launch their own similar process.

But after Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said on Sunday that the government could ignore the outcome of indicative votes if they produce a majority for a soft Brexit, MPs seem unlikely to back down and they could force yet another a embarrassing defeat on May and take control of Commons business on Wednesday.

An amendment tabled by Tory backbencher Will Quince, who quit as a government aide over Brexit, could unite the Tories as it simply calls for the EU referendum result of 2016 to be honoured.

But a separate amendment from Yvette Cooper, to keep the government honest on indicative votes, could spell more trouble for May.

The plan would set a Thursday deadline for ministers to explain how they would avoid a no-deal Brexit, including by seeking a further Article 50 delay to take into account the result of any indicative votes.

Tuesday

May could bring back her deal for a third meaningful vote. But she has acknowledged that there is little point unless she has a realistic chance of success.

The PM will hope talks at Chequers over the weekend with key Brexiteers will have changed some minds, but they are unlikely to switch votes unless the DUP back the deal, which seems unlikely after they released a highly critical statement on Friday.

May will also have to try to get around Speaker John Bercow’s ruling that she cannot ask the same question of the Commons twice, possibly by adding the new exit date to the meaningful vote motion, as well as text agreed with the EU after talks in Strasbourg earlier this month and other domestic changes.

Wednesday

If the Letwin amendment passes on Monday, the Commons will begin a process of indicative votes under terms determined by MPs.

Even if it does not, this seems like the most likely day for the government’s own version of indicative votes.

Chancellor Philip Hammond has said a no-deal Brexit and revoking Article 50 should not be considered, but acknowledged that a second referendum pitting May’s deal versus staying in the EU is a “coherent” idea which “deserves to be considered”.

Many MPs believe plans for a Norway or Common Market 2.0-style Brexit - retaining membership of the single market and customs union - is the most likely winner. 

But Barclay has suggested this would contradict the Tories’ election manifesto and could force the government to call a general election.

Thursday

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May could be tempted to bring back her deal on Thursday and present Tory eurosceptics and the DUP a choice between a soft Brexit and her deal in the hope they may finally choose her agreement’s devil over the deep blue sea of single market membership. 

Again, she will have Bercow’s ruling to deal with and anger from MPs who may already have backed another plan.

If she does not bring her deal back for another vote, and Cooper’s amendment passes on Monday, a minister will be forced to set out how the government plans to respond to the indicative votes and whether the government will seek a further delay to Article 50.

Friday 

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This was Brexit day until it was delayed to April 12, and is still Brexit day in UK law. At some point this week the government will need to pass secondary legislation to remove it from law, a move likely to spark another rebellion from backbenchers but pass easily with Opposition support.

Leave supporters taking part in the Brexit Betrayal march started by Nigel Farage in Sunderland are due to arrive in London for a protest in a scenario that could be even more messy and chaotic than what has already gone before.