Alessio Rastani Predicts A 'Devastating' Financial Crash In 2014

'I'm Still Praying For Another Recession'
|
Open Image Modal
HuffPostUK

Alessio Rastani, the independent trader who infamously told the BBC that he "dreamed" of another recession, has revealed he is not only still "praying" for one but he predicts the UK will suffer another financial crash next year that will be "impossible to prevent".

Speaking to the Huffington Post UK, Rastani said: "We won't have a devastating crash like we had in 2007 until 2014."

"All you need is a spike in volatility which results in a sudden fall in stock prices which results in people panicking and starting to sell. That'll cause a massive fall between anything from 10 to 20%."

Rastani made his comments on Thursday, marking the fifth anniversary since the recession started. In 2011, he told the BBC that the market was "toast" and he "dreamed" of a recession as it would be an "opportunity" to make money.

He said: "I go to bed every night and I dream of another recession. When the market crashes... if you know what to do, if you have the right plan set up, you can make a lot of money from this."

Alessio Rastani's 2011 BBC interview

Speaking to HuffPostUK, Rastani warned: "It's impossible to prevent a crash because all you require is a sudden panic in the market due to any event, a high rise in interest rates or whatever and markets will sell off.

"There'll be an initial fall in stocks and once selling starts to occur, you'll have to appreciate all those people who have been buying and overleveraging extremely huge amounts - which was the cause of the stock market crash in 2007."

The controversial trader said the "smart money" was starting to pull out of the stock market, which showed "something was going on".

Rastani added: "We're repeating the same mistakes before the 2008 crash. The markets are going into a bubble. It's crazy that we're talking about a housing bubble just five years after the crash."

Most City traders have a "herd mentality" and "don't know what they're doing", he said.

Rastani suggested that the financial danger came from the fact that margin debts, which traders bet and borrow against to make their investments, were "worse than they were before the 2008 crash".

He added: "I pay a lot of attention to historical patterns, they do repeat themselves. They've shown between the month of November till May over the last 50 years, stocks have always outperformed in the majority of them in a 'Halloween effect'. Stocks usually bottom out and then they do a massive rally in May."

"I expect stocks to continue to plough higher from November till May and then what's going to happen is we'll see margin debt levels going sky high.

"What we're going to see in May 2014 is the three signs of a market crash, you'll get margin debt levels going sky high just like we had in 2007 and 2011, we'll see a sudden spike in interest rates, there has usually been a sudden spike in interest rates about every 5 to 6 years.

"In the last 30 years there has been a sudden spike in interest rates in 1987, 1994, the year 2000 and the year 2007. Every time there has been a spike in interest rates, there has usually been a crash."

See also:

People Who Shot To Fame In The Recession
Vince Cable (01 of04)
Open Image Modal
The top LibDem won as a reputation as an economic sage for seeming to predict the 2008 recession many years earlier. Back in November 2003, Cable asked Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, "Is not the brutal truth that ... the growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level?" Brown replied, "As the Bank of England said yesterday, consumer spending is returning to trend. The Governor said, 'there is no indication that the scale of debt problems have ... risen markedly in the last five years."Brown is now ex-Prime Minister, while Vince Cable has risen up to be the LibDem's business secretary and arch-nemesis of the Tories.
Fred Goodwin (02 of04)
Open Image Modal
Fred 'the Shred' Goodwin took over the reins of the Royal Bank of Scotland in 2001. Sadly, Goodwin's disastrous £55 billion takeover of the Dutch Bank ABN AMRO in October 2007 left RBS dangerously exposed when the financial crisis hit, bringing about RBS' near-collapse and devastation in the banking sector.
Bernie Madoff (03 of04)
Open Image Modal
Bernard "Bernie" Madoff was a top American financier and darling of the financial world, until he was arrested over charges - to which he later admitted - of fraud.Madoff admitted to operating a Ponzi scheme defrauding investors of billions of dollars in what is considered to be the largest financial fraud in American history.He was later sentenced to 150 years in jail in 2009.
Robert Peston (04 of04)
Open Image Modal
To comment on the financial maelstrom, the BBC's Robert Peston stood out like no other. The business editor's impeccable sources and scoops meant he broke many of the crucial twists and turns of the financial crisis before anyone else, like the collapse of the Northern Rock bank.He has now been picked to replace Stephanie Flanders as the BBC's economics editor, after she left to join JP Morgan.