The Islamic State's burning to death of a Jordanian pilot locked in a steel cage, captured in high-definition film, is a show of weakness not strength, analysts have suggested.
Indeed, many Middle East watchers have said the video is likely to be deeply problematic for IS, as the group looks to make gains within Jordan. It is increasingly being seen as a desperate PR move by the group looking for ever more grotesque ways to win the media war, when they are losing the ground war.
“[First Lt. Moaz al-Kasasbeh] is in every bedroom in Jordan now,” Jordanian MP Naif al-Amoun told the New York Times. “We are not going to let anyone exploit this issue to turn us against the government.” Jordan has since executed two prisoners, including a would-be female suicide bomber from al-Qaeda.
On the ground, things are going badly for IS, also know as Isis and Isil. No significant territorial gains have been made since summer 2014, the Taliban is fighting any attempt to wrestle any space in Afghanistan, and the NYT reports that the Iraqi armed forces have undergone significant improvements in their organisation and training.
"Increasing pressures on the group may make them more desperate and likely to carry out barbaric acts to keep attention on their message," Joana Cook of the Kings College London War Studies department told the Telegraph. "As long as their messaging and reactions to their grievances find resonance with their audience, this cycle is likely to continue.
"While [IS] may appear to be winning in the short-term, those challenging the group can ensure that their actions do not provide more fuel for the long-term. As with terrorist groups throughout history, increasing violence has never won the day."
Former Egyptian army Maj Gen. Abdul Karim Ahmed told the AINA news agency that IS wanted to project itself as a "giant stone colossus", but it has instead turned out to be a "cardboard monster easy to destroy"
So why are Islamic State getting so desperate?
IS are losing
They lost Kobane(01 of07)
Open Image ModalIslamic State fighters have been forced to retreat from Kobane, the strategic town on Syria's border with Turkey, a major military defeat as well as a public relations disaster. The next battle for the Kurds and the US-led coalition or the jihadists will determine whether Islamic State can use the main highway west through northern Syria. If they lose more ground, they may be unable to funnel weapons and reinforcements to their retreating comrades. (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Half of Islamic State's top commanders are believed to be dead(02 of07)
Open Image ModalNine out of 18 members of the ruling council, headed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, are believed to have been killed. Two known dead are deputy leader Abu Muslim al-Turkmani and al-Baghdadi’s deputy and security "minister" Abu Musa Al-Shawakh. Al-Baghdadi himself has not been seen alive since July, but he is believed to still be in control. (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
And air strikes are destroying their resources(03 of07)
Open Image ModalThey're using child soldiers(04 of07)
Open Image ModalSome foreign recruits are coming back with horror stories(05 of07)
Open Image ModalThey are losing oil revenue(06 of07)
Open Image ModalPentagon Press Secretary hinted on Tuesday that the “lead source” of the IS’ income has been “changing." The rest of the world is also feeling effects of the drop in the price of oil, but IS especially so. It had been relying on a black market to sell tens of thousands of barrels from its seized Iraqi fields, earning up to £1.5m a day. But airstrikes have been targeting oil production, and output is now just a quarter of what it was. The International Energy Agency says the airstrikes “frustrated the jihadists’ ability to operate oil fields and refineries.” (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
They have a dwindling number of hostages left(07 of07)
Open Image ModalLast August, IS had at least 23 Western hostages; most of them were freed for large ransom payments, and eight have been murdered, three Americans, two Brits, two Japanese and one Jordanian. They are now they are believed to have just four hostages remaining, two of them Westerners. They are British journalist John Cantlie, seen fronting several IS propaganda films, and the other is an unnamed 26-year-old American aid worker. According to a US bulletin to journalists in October, kidnapping is increasingly seen as the most important revenue stream, and reporters and aid workers have been warned they may be at risk even in bordering nations. (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)