Everything You Need To Know About El Niño, The Weather Pattern Nicknamed 'Bruce Lee'
Everything You Need To Know About El Niño
Lucy Sherriff— The Huffington Post UK
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Floods in Japan, bushfires in Australia and storms in Brazil; El Niño, the weather pattern one meteorologist nicknamed Bruce Lee thanks to the punch it has packed Planet Earth, has a lot to answer for.
So what exactly is El Niño?
El Niño - and it's sister La Niña - are complex weather patterns which result from changes in temperatures in the Pacific ocean. El Niño, which means "little boy" or "Christ Child" in Spanish, is the appearance of unusually warm water in the ocean, while La Niña, which translates as "little girl", represents periods of colder sea temperatures in the Pacific.
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Japan has experienced devastating floods, thanks to the El Niño phenomenon
Episodes can last up to 18 months, and occur on average every two to seven years.
This year's El Niño looks set to be the most powerful of its kind for the past 65 years.
Research conducted by the Met Office reveals global temperatures are rising again, with Professor Adam Scaife, although of the report, saying 2016 is likely to be very warm, contradicting previous claims global warming had slowed down.
Answering your El Niño questions
Colder winters?(01 of04)
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Although global average temperatures are likely to rise, this doesn't mean temperatures in all regions will, explains climate scientist Doug Smith, who is predictability research manager at the Met Office.
Cooling may occur in some regions but will be balanced by warming in other regions.
"In general, El Niño increases the probability of cold UK winters, along with warmer conditions in other regions such as eastern Canada and southern Europe," Smith tells HuffPost UK.
However, El Niño is just one contributing factor in UK winters - and other influencers such as the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures may have the opposite effect.
Conclusion?"The forecast for this winter is therefore uncertain," says Smith. (credit:John Giles/PA Wire)
Will the price of coffee go up?(02 of04)
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We could see the price of sugar, coffee, rice and cacao rise by 5 to 10%, thanks to droughts and floods in Brazil, southeast Asia and more.
Smith says El Niño does affect the growing conditions for these crops in certain regions, but adds: "However, the impacts of El Niño are not always the same so we cannot be certain how much the crops will be affected.
"Furthermore, the prices are also influenced by global economic conditions."
Conclusion?It's a case of wait and see. (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Will we see more extreme weather in the UK?(03 of04)
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"The changes occurring in the climate system at the moment are expected to influence the UK and Europe," Smith explains, "with associated changes in the risks of extreme weather."
Conclusion?Yes, we most certainly can. So expect more of weather like this seen over the Vale of Belvoir, Leicestershire last July. (credit:Neil Squires/PA Archive)
Can we really predict El Niño?(04 of04)
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Although El Niño is "highly predictable" a few months in advance, its global impacts are more uncertain, Smith explains.
This is because its effects depend on the "precise details of where the maximum warming in the tropical Pacific occurs and how this interacts with the atmospheric circulation".
Smith adds: "Despite these uncertainties there are many useful predictions that can be made about changing risks associated the current El Niño, but when interpreting these predictions it should be remembered that the most probable outcome will not always happen ie. the favourite doesn’t always win."
Here, NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert speaks about an El Nino weather system that could strike California in late fall or early winter.
Conclusion?In the short term, yes. Long term? Who knows what will happen. (credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)