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ONS Population Data Predicts UK Will Have 69 Million Residents By 2024, But Daily Mail Readers Have A Solution

Daily Mail Readers Have Hit Peak Irony In Response To Rising UK Population
George Bowden
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Readers of the Daily Mail are selflessly offering to leave the UK in response to reports that the population is predicted to rise by more than four million in less than a decade.

The report from the Office For National Statistics predicts the UK will be home to some 69 million people by the mid 2020s, and could even reach 74.3 million in 2039.

The Mail dedicated a full page to the findings on Friday and published copious graphics and charts illustrating the predictions on its website.

Predictably, reason was in short supply in the comments below the article, with one reader writing -- without irony -- that they intend to leave the UK for countries with "more sensible immigration policies".

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Others thought Ukip had the answers.

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Readers also criticised Benedict Cumberbatch, who recently halted his performance of Hamlet to launch a pro-immigration speech.

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But the figures are only a prediction, albeit an authoritative one. These figures may well come to be proved wrong if crucial assumptions used to inform the data turn out to be incorrect.

How Reliable Are Population Predictions?

UK Population Predictions Explained
Bad Assumptions Skew Predictions(01 of03)
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Predictions for population sizes made in the mid-1960s vastly over-estimated future fertility levels.

Assumptions made about increasing levels of fertility amongst those born in the UK were later proved to be wildly inaccurate, but not before they were used to inform statistics on population growth (PDF).

In a 1965-based projection, 1.5 million births were projected for the year 2000, well over double the eventual figure. (credit:John Lawson, Belhaven via Getty Images)
Net Migration Is Almost Impossible To Predict(02 of03)
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Net migration - the number of people coming into the country, minus those leaving, is notoriously troublesome to predict.

Migration has always fluctuated, and while it was easier to predict in earlier decades, more recently the effects of policy changes and of new European Union members has been more difficult to determine.

In a well-known miss, an economist predicted 10 nations joining the EU in 2004 would see an increase in the UK's population of 13,000 a year.

The eventual figure was about 50,000 a year. (credit:John Lawson, Belhaven via Getty Images)
But Previous Errors Aren't Indicative Of The Future(03 of03)
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A rise in UK fertility may well be maintained throughout coming decades, meaning the population may rise to the ONS' upper predictions.

The influence of high levels of net migration may increase this still further, and if life expectancy continues to increase, the numbers residing in the UK may well reach abover 70 million in a shorter period of time.

But all of these assumptions could be proved wrong, meaning that the population does not boom to the levels predicted by the ONS. (credit:PhenomArtlover via Getty Images)

Explaining the latest figures, Guy Goodwin, director of social analysis at the ONS, said: "The UK's population is set to grow and age.

"Growth will be at a faster rate than we have seen previously, largely due to the direct impact of international migration and the indirect impact of immigration.

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Click here for a zoomable version of this graphic produced for HuffPost UK by Statista

"Despite this, the population will also be older as those born shortly after World War Two and during the 1960s 'baby boom' reach the oldest and pensionable ages respectively.

"The number of people of age 80 or over will more than double over the next 25 years."

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