Vladimir Putin's Snapped Pencil And 11 Other Reasons To Be Sceptical Of Ukraine Ceasefire Deal

Putin's Snapped Pencil And 11 Other Reasons To Be Sceptical Of Ukraine Deal
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Guns will fall silent, heavy weapons will pull back from the front, and Ukraine will trade a broad autonomy for the east to get back control of its Russian border by the end of this year under a peace deal hammered out Thursday in all-night negotiations between Moscow, Ukraine, France and Germany.

"It was not the best night in my life, but the morning, I think, is good because we have managed to agree on the main things despite all the difficulties of the negotiations," Vladimir Putin told reporters.

So frustrated was the Russian leader during talks, he appeared to snap a pencil in two.

The deal was full of potential pitfalls that could derail its implementation, however. There are several issues still to be resolved and with ceasefires having a history of collapse over the past 12 months, many have expressed scepticism about the new deal.

Here's why that might be:

11 Reasons To Be Pessimistic About The Ukraine Ceasefire Deal
Russia and Ukraine differ over what exactly they had agreed to during in marathon 16-hour talks(01 of11)
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(credit:ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Putin said the agreement envisages a cease-fire beginning Sunday as well as a special status for Ukraine's separatist regions(02 of11)
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Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said there was no agreement on any autonomy or federalisation for eastern Ukraine, a longtime demand of Russia(03 of11)
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Russia has made it obvious it wishes to maintain leverage over Ukraine and prevent it from ever joining NATO(04 of11)
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(credit:VASILY MAXIMOV via Getty Images)
The deal will require the Ukrainian parliament to give wide powers to the eastern regions as a condition for restoring Ukraine's full control over its border with Russia — and they may well not agree to give that(05 of11)
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(credit:Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Putin admits that he and Poroshenko still disagree on the situation at a key eastern flashpoint, the government-held town of Debaltseve(06 of11)
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The rebel regions, which held their own "separatist referendums" that Ukraine and the West declared a sham, are obliged to hold a new local vote under the Ukrainian law - but they may not comply(07 of11)
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(credit:ANATOLII BOIKO via Getty Images)
Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said despite the ongoing peace talks, Russia sent 50 tanks and a dozen heavy weapons into Ukraine across the rebel-controlled border overnight(08 of11)
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(credit:DOMINIQUE FAGET via Getty Images)
Battles in the east continued to rage on Thursday even as the four leaders were holding peace talks(09 of11)
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(credit:VASILY MAXIMOV via Getty Images)
A previous cease-fire agreed in September fell apart as Ukrainian forces and the rebels both tried to gain more ground(10 of11)
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Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said he will blame Kiev if the cease-fire collapses and then there "will be no meetings and no new agreements."(11 of11)
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(credit:ALEKSANDER GAYUK via Getty Images)

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More than 5,300 people have died since April in the fighting in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and government troops. The new deal envisages a buffer zone created by pulling back heavy artillery and rocket systems 31 to 87 miles away from the front line, depending on their caliber. The withdrawal should begin no later than the second day after the cease-fire becomes effective and it should be completed within two weeks.

French President Hollande said he and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are committed to helping verify the cease-fire process in Ukraine, hailing the deal as a "relief to Europe."

Poroshenko stressed that the agreement contains "a clear commitment to withdraw all foreign troops, all mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine," a reference to the Russian soldiers and weapons that Ukraine and the West say Russia has sent into eastern Ukraine to back the rebels. Moscow has denied the accusations, saying any Russia fighters were volunteers, but the sheer number of sophisticated heavy weapons in the rebels' possession belies the denial.

Merkel said, in the end, Putin exerted pressure on the separatists to get them to agree to the cease-fire. "I have no illusions, we have no illusions. A great, great deal of work is still necessary. But there is a real chance to make things better," she said.

The French-German diplomatic dash came as President Barack Obama considered sending US lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, a move that European nations feared would only widen the hostilities.

The urgency felt by all sides appeared to be underlined by the extraordinary length and discomfort of the talks, which began Wednesday evening and continued uninterrupted through the night.

Crowds of reporters waited anxiously in a marble-floored, chandeliered convention hall in Minsk, with one whisked away by doctors to be treated for exhaustion, according to the Interfax news agency.